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Calculation of Raw Material Prices and Conversion Costs for Biofuels

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Liquid Biofuels: Emergence, Development and Prospects

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Energy ((LNEN,volume 27))

Abstract

The current taxation benefits for biofuels are only temporary. Therefore, biofuel production costs need to be able to compete with those of conventional fuels in order to gain market share in the future. However, highly complex influencing factors make a comparison of biofuel production costs with those of fossil fuels challenging. This chapter has three major goals: (1) a projection of future feedstock prices for biofuels based on the development of the price for crude oil, (2) a simulation of the effects of likely economies of scale from scaling-up production size and technological learning on production costs and (3) a scenario analysis comparing different biofuels and fossil fuels. European biofuel production costs for 2015 as well as 2020 are projected based on a calculation model for biofuel production. Our scenarios assume prices for crude oil between Euro 50 and Euro 200 per barrel for both reference years. Our results indicate that mid- to long-term, second-generation biofuels are very likely to achieve competitive production costs, if technological learning and economies of scale are factored in. Bioethanol made from lignocellulosic biomass and biodiesel from waste oil promise the highest cost-saving potential in all crude price scenarios and are capable of outperforming fossil fuels and first-generation biofuels in the future.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Festel Capital, Mettlenstrasse 14, 6363, Fuerigen, Switzerland

    Gunter Festel

  2. Autodisplay Biotech GmbH, Merowinger Platz 1a, 40225, Dusseldorf, Germany

    Gunter Festel & Martin Bellof

  3. Butalco GmbH, Mettlenstrasse 14, 6363, Fuerigen, Switzerland

    Gunter Festel & Martin Würmseher

  4. Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Gunter Festel & Martin Würmseher

  5. Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, Germany

    Christian Rammer

  6. Institute of Molecular Biosciences, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Eckhard Boles

Authors
  1. Gunter Festel
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  2. Martin Bellof
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  3. Martin Würmseher
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  4. Christian Rammer
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  5. Eckhard Boles
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gunter Festel .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Agribusiness Center (CEPAN/UFRGS), School of Management, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil

    Antonio Domingos Padula

  2. Department of Business Management, State University of Western Paraná, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil

    Manoela Silveira dos Santos

  3. Agribusiness Center (CEPAN/UFRGS), Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil

    Omar Inácio Benedetti Santos

  4. School of Management, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Denis Borenstein

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Festel, G., Bellof, M., Würmseher, M., Rammer, C., Boles, E. (2014). Calculation of Raw Material Prices and Conversion Costs for Biofuels. In: Domingos Padula, A., Silveira dos Santos, M., Benedetti Santos, O., Borenstein, D. (eds) Liquid Biofuels: Emergence, Development and Prospects. Lecture Notes in Energy, vol 27. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-6482-1_5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-6482-1_5

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, London

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4471-6481-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4471-6482-1

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