Abstract
The paper investigates how would sector composition and the magnitude of R&D investments in the EU differ in year 2020 compared to the past, if a selection of top R&D-investing SMEs were assumed to be on a fast growth track while the top R&D-investing large scale companies continued to grow as before. Background of this research objective is the emerging focus on SMEs — and in particular the fast growing among them — with regard to the “Europe 2020” policy strategy. The study relies on the sample of top R&D-investing firms as given by the latest available “EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard” editions, building from it an unbalanced panel. Scenarios were developed by distinguishing SMEs’ assumed growth paths vs. that of large scale companies. A linear prediction model has been used to compute the simulation. Overall, the study indicates that if one expects the (R&D-intensive) small firms to be a driving force for a substantial structural change in the EU economy, from being driven by rather medium-tech sectors towards a high-tech based economy, it requires either a significant longer time horizon of the assumed fast growth track than the simulated 10 years, or small firms’ growth figures which even exceed the assumed 30% annually (as in the most optimistic scenario). Neither case appears to be particularly realistic. Hence, we need more top R&D investors in Europe to further intensify their engagement in R&D (increasing volume and R&D intensity) as well as numerous small firms that start and/or significantly increase their existing R&D activities and thus seek to become large firms and (global) leading R&D investors. Accordingly, a broad R&D and innovation (policy) strategy is needed with policy interventions which also target well all these options; i.e. stimulating firm growth and R&D and innovation-intensity across firm-sized classes.
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The authors would like to thank Fernando Hervás, Sandro Montresor, Joerg Zimmermann (all European Commission, JRC-IPTS) and Michele Cincera (Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Université Libre de Bruxelles) for their detailed and useful comments.
The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.
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Voigt, P., Moncada-Paternò-Castello, P. Can Fast Growing R&D-Intensive Smes Affect the Economic Structure of the Eu Economy?: A Projection to the Year 2020. Eurasian Bus Rev 2, 96–128 (2012). https://doi.org/10.14208/BF03353814
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.14208/BF03353814