Abstract
Previous research examining the impact of unilateral divorce law (UDL) on the prevalence of divorce has provided mixed results. Studies based on cross-sectional cross-country/cross-state survey data have received criticism for disregarding unobserved heterogeneity across countries, as have studies using country-level panel data for failing to account for possible mediating mechanisms at the micro level. We seek to overcome both shortcomings by using individual-level event-history data from 11 European countries (SHARELIFE) and controlling for unobserved heterogeneity over countries and cohorts. We find that UDL in total increased the incidence of marital breakdown by about 20 %. This finding, however, neglects potential selection effects into marriage. Accordingly, the estimated effect of unilateral divorce laws becomes much larger when we control for age at marriage, which is used as indicator for match quality. Moreover, we find that UDL particularly affects marital stability in the presence of children.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The analytic sample is restricted to respondents aged 50–90 with nonmissing information on all covariates. Time at risk is defined from marriage to divorce or censoring (interview, widowhood), from age 16 to first marriage or censoring, or from marriage to first child born in wedlock or censoring (interview, divorce, or death), respectively.
Technically, fixed effects enter into the model as country and cohort dummy variables, where cohorts are defined by year of birth. Country-specific trends are modeled as interaction terms of country dummy variables × cohort (linear) and country dummy variables × cohort (quadratic), respectively. This specification implies that countries never observed to change their divorce regime contribute to the estimation by affecting the specification of cohort effects.
For a detailed discussion on unilateral divorce in Europe, also see the results of an extensive expert survey among European family law researchers in Boele-Woelki et al. (2003, 2004) as well as the national reports of the European expert group on family law available online (http://www.ceflonline.net). The divorce law coding of Kneip and Bauer (2009) and González and Viitanen (2009) relies on these sources.
Mediator effects are obtained using the khb.ado Stata command, as described in Kohler et al. (2011). Because the KHB method cannot be used with Cox regression, we instead ran discrete-time models, which are technically logit models. The (generalized form of the) sickle function, which has been shown to be appropriate in the case of divorce (cf. Diekmann and Mitter 1983, 1984), was chosen as parameterization of the hazard rate. Obtained estimates are virtually identical to those from Cox regression (i.e., coefficients usually do not differ to the second decimal place).
We have focused on the transition to parenthood, which is likely to be the most crucial investment decision. Analyses on higher-order transitions (not shown) reveal that the negative UDL effect becomes even stronger with increasing parity. Moreover, transition rates to a second and third child decrease significantly under UDL even when we control for age at marriage.
Estimates of the UDL effect remain stable over all models from panel b when number of children is included as a measure of specific capital. The interaction effect of UDL and children slightly rises with increasing parity, with a pronounced jump in the presence of one child.
References
Alesina, A., & Giuliano, P. (2007). Divorce, fertility, and the value of marriage (Discussion Paper No. 2136). Cambridge, MA: Harvard Institute of Economic Research.
Allen, D. W. (1992). Marriage and divorce: Comment. American Economic Review, 82, 679–685.
Allen, D. W. (2002). The impact of legal reforms on marriage and divorce. In A. W. Dnes & R. Rowthorn (Eds.), The law and economics of marriage and divorce (pp. 191–211). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Amato, P. R. (2001). Children of divorce in the 1990s: An update of the Amato and Keith (1991) meta-analysis. Journal of Family Psychology, 15, 355–370.
Amato, P. R., & Keith, B. (1991). Parental divorce and the well-being of children: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 26–46.
Amato, P. R., Loomis, L. S., & Booth, A. (1995). Parental divorce, marital conflict, and offspring well-being during early childhood. Social Forces, 73, 895–915.
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics. Princeton, NJ and Oxford, UK: Princeton University Press.
Baxter, J., Hewitt, B., & Haynes, M. (2008). Life course transitions and housework: Marriage, parenthood and time on housework. Journal of Marriage and Family, 70, 259–272.
Becker, G. S. (1981). A treatise on the family. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Becker, G. S., Landes, E. M., & Michael, R. T. (1977). An economic analysis of marital instability. Journal of Political Economy, 85, 1141–1187.
Boele-Woelki, K., Braat, B., & Sumner, I. (2003). European family law in action. Volume 1: Grounds for divorce. Antwerp, Belgium: Intersentia.
Boele-Woelki, K., Ferrand, F., González Beilfuss, C., Jäntera-Jareborg, M., Lowe, N., Martiny, D., & Pintens, W. (2004). Principles of European family law regarding divorce and maintenance between former spouses. Antwerp, Belgium: Intersentia.
Booth, A., Johnson, D. R., White, L., & Edwards, J. N. (1984). Women, outside employment, and marital instability. American Journal of Sociology, 90, 567–583.
Börsch-Supan, A., Brandt, M., Hunkler, C., Kneip, T., Korbmacher, J., Malter, F., & Zuber, S. (2013). Data resource profile: The survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe (SHARE). International Journal of Epidemiology. doi:10.1093/ije/dyt088
Brüderl, J., & Kalter, F. (2001). The dissolution of marriages: The role of information and marital-specific capital. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 25, 403–421.
Bumpass, L. L., & Lu, H.-H. (2000). Trends in cohabitation and implications for children’s family contexts in the United States. Population Studies, 54, 29–41.
Chiappori, P.-A., Iyigun, M. F., & Weiss, Y. (2007). Public goods, transferable utility and divorce laws (IZA Discussion Paper No. 2646). Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor.
Coase, R. H. (1960). The problem of social cost. Journal of Law and Economics, 3, 1–44.
Diekmann, A., & Engelhardt, H. (1999). The social inheritence of divorce: Effects of parent’s family type in postwar Germany. American Sociological Review, 64, 783–793.
Diekmann, A., & Mitter, P. (1983). The sickle hypothesis. A time dependent Poisson model with applications to deviant behavior and occupational mobility. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 9, 85–101.
Diekmann, A., & Mitter, P. (1984). A comparison of the “sickle function” with alternative stochastic models of divorce rates. In A. Diekmann & P. Mitter (Eds.), Stochastic modelling of social processes (pp. 123–153). Orlando, FL: Academic Press.
Friedberg, L. (1998). Did unilateral divorce raise divorce rates? Evidence from panel data. American Economic Review, 88, 608–627.
Gallagher, J. T. (1973). No-fault divorce in Delaware. American Bar Association Journal, 59, 873–875.
Garrouste, C., & Paccagnella, O. (2011). Data quality: Three examples of consistency across SHARE and SHARELIFE data. In M. Schröder (Ed.), Retrospective data collection in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. SHARELIFE Methodology (pp. 62–72). Mannheim, Germany: MEA.
Goddard, W. H. (1972). A report on California’s new divorce law: Progress and problems. Family Law Quarterly, 6, 405–408.
González, L., & Viitanen, T. K. (2009). The effect of divorce laws on divorce rates in Europe. European Economic Review, 53, 127–138.
Goode, W. J. (1993). World changes in divorce patterns. New Haven, CT & London, UK: Yale University Press.
Gruber, J. (2004). Is making divorce easier bad for children? The long run implications of unilateral divorce. Journal of Labor Economics, 22, 799–833.
Karlson, K. B., Holm, A., & Breen, R. (2012). Comparing regression coefficients between same-sample nested models using logit and probit: A new method. Sociological Methodology, 42, 286–313.
Kneip, T., & Bauer, G. (2009). Did unilateral divorce laws raise divorce rates in Western Europe? Journal of Marriage and Family, 71, 592–607.
Kohler, U., Karlson, K. B., & Holm, A. (2011). Comparing coefficients of nested nonlinear probability models. Stata Journal, 11, 420–438.
Landes, E. M. (1978). Economics of alimony. Journal of Legal Studies, 7, 35–63.
Lee, J. Y., & Solon, G. (2011). The fragility of estimated effects of unilateral divorce laws on divorce rates (NBER Working Paper No. 16773). Washington, DC: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Lehrer, E. L. (2008). Age at marriage and marital instability: Revisiting the Becker–Landes–Michael hypothesis. Journal of Population Economics, 21, 463–484.
Lillard, L. A., & Waite, L. J. (1993). A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption. Demography, 30, 653–681.
Marvell, T. B. (1989). Divorce rates and the fault requirement. Law and Society Review, 23, 543–567.
Nakonezny, P. A., Shull, R. D., & Rodgers, J. L. (1995). The effect of no-fault divorce law on the divorce rate across the 50 States and its relation to income, education, and religiosity. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 57, 477–488.
Oppenheimer, V. K. (1988). A theory of marriage timing. American Journal of Sociology, 94, 563–591.
Parkman, A. M. (1992). Unilateral divorce and the labor-force participation rate of married women, revisited. American Economic Review, 82, 671–678.
Peters, H. E. (1986). Marriage and divorce: Informational constraints and private contracting. American Economic Review, 76, 437–454.
Raley, R. K. (2001). Increasing fertility in cohabiting unions: Evidence for the second demographic transition in the United States? Demography, 38, 59–66.
Rasul, I. (2005). Marriage markets and divorce laws. Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 22, 30–69.
Reinhold, S., Kneip, T., & Bauer, G. (2013). The long run consequences of unilateral divorce laws on children—Evidence from SHARELIFE. Journal of Population Economics, 26, 1035–1056.
Rogers, S. J. (2004). Dollars, dependency, and divorce: Four perspectives on the role of wives’ income. Journal of Marriage and Family, 66, 59–74.
Schoen, R., Greenblatt, H. N., & Mielke, R. B. (1975). California’s experience with non-adversary divorce. Demography, 12, 223–243.
Schröder, M. (2011). Retrospective data collection in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. SHARELIFE methodology. Mannheim, Germany: MEA.
Shelton, B. A., & John, D. (1996). The division of household labor. Annual Review of Sociology, 22, 299–322.
South, S. J. (2001). Time-dependent effects of wives’ employment on marital dissolution. American Sociological Review, 66, 226–245.
South, S. J., & Spitze, G. (1994). Housework in marital and nonmarital household. American Sociological Review, 59, 327–347.
Stevenson, B., & Wolfers, J. (2006). Bargaining in the sadow of the law: Divorce laws and family distress. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, 267–288.
Wagner, M., & Weiss, B. (2006). On the variation of divorce risks in Europe: Findings from a meta-analysis of European longitudinal studies. European Sociological Review, 22, 483–500.
White, L. K. (1990). Determinants of divorce: A review of research in the eighties. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 52, 904–912.
Winship, C., & Mare, R. D. (1984). Regression models with ordinal variables. American Sociological Review, 49, 512–525.
Wolfers, J. (2006). Did unilateral divorce laws raise divorce rates? A reconciliation and new results. American Economic Review, 96, 1802–1820.
Wright, G. C., & Stetson, D. M. (1978). The impact of no-fault divorce law reform on divorce in American states. Journal of Marriage and Family, 40, 565–580.
Zelder, M. (1993). Inefficient dissolutions as a consequence of public goods: The case of no-fault divorce. Journal of Legal Studies, 22, 503–520.
Acknowledgments
This article uses data from SHARELIFE release 1, as of November 24, 2010; or SHARE release 2.5.0, as of May 24, 2011. The SHARE data collection has been primarily funded by the European Commission through the fifth framework program (project QLK6-CT-2001-00360 in the thematic program Quality of Life), through the sixth framework program (projects SHARE-I3, RII-CT- 2006-062193, COMPARE, CIT5-CT-2005-028857, and SHARELIFE, CIT4-CT-2006-028812), and through the seventh framework program (SHARE-PREP, 211909 and SHARE-LEAP, 227822). Additional funding from the U.S. National Institute on Aging (U01 AG09740-13S2, P01 AG005842, P01 AG08291, P30 AG12815, Y1-AG-4553-01 and OGHA 04-064, IAG BSR06-11, R21 AG025169), as well as from various national sources, is gratefully acknowledged (see http://www.share-project.org for a full list of funding institutions). We thank Henning Best, Martina Brandt, Josef Brüderl, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Andrew Cherlin, and Stefania Marcassa for valuable comments.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kneip, T., Bauer, G. & Reinhold, S. Direct and Indirect Effects of Unilateral Divorce Law on Marital Stability. Demography 51, 2103–2126 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0337-2
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0337-2