Climatic Change

, Volume 136, Issue 3, pp 555–570

Projections of climate change effects on discharge and inundation in the Amazon basin

  • Mino Viana Sorribas
  • Rodrigo C. D. Paiva
  • John M. Melack
  • Juan Martin Bravo
  • Charles Jones
  • Leila Carvalho
  • Edward Beighley
  • Bruce Forsberg
  • Marcos Heil Costa
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1640-2

Cite this article as:
Sorribas, M.V., Paiva, R.C.D., Melack, J.M. et al. Climatic Change (2016) 136: 555. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1640-2

Abstract

Climate change and its effects on the hydrologic regime of the Amazon basin can impact biogeochemical processes, transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined projections of climate change on discharge and inundation extent in the Amazon basin using the regional hydrological model MGB-IPH with 1-dimensional river hydraulic and water storage simulation in floodplains. Future projections (2070–2099) were obtained from five GCMs from IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report CMIP5. Climate projections have uncertainty and results from different climate models did not agree in total Amazon flooded area or discharge anomalies along the main stem river. Overall, model runs agree better with wetter (drier) conditions over western (eastern) Amazon. Results indicate that increased mean and maximum river discharge for large rivers draining the Andes in the northwest contributes to increased mean and maximum discharge and inundation extent over Peruvian floodplains and Solimões River (annual mean-max: +9 % - +18.3 %) in western Amazonia. Decreased river discharges (mostly dry season) are projected for eastern basins, and decreased inundation extent at low water (annual min) in the central (−15.9 %) and lower Amazon (−4.4 %).

Supplementary material

10584_2016_1640_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (2.4 mb)
ESM 1(PDF 2.41 mb)

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mino Viana Sorribas
    • 1
  • Rodrigo C. D. Paiva
    • 1
  • John M. Melack
    • 2
  • Juan Martin Bravo
    • 1
  • Charles Jones
    • 3
  • Leila Carvalho
    • 3
  • Edward Beighley
    • 4
  • Bruce Forsberg
    • 5
  • Marcos Heil Costa
    • 6
  1. 1.IPH/UFRGS - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulPorto AlegreBrazil
  2. 2.Bren School of Environmental Science and ManagementUniversity of California, Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraUSA
  3. 3.Geography DepartmentUniversity of California, Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraUSA
  4. 4.Civil and Environmental EngineeringNortheastern UniversityBostonUSA
  5. 5.Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da AmazôniaManausBrazil
  6. 6.Universidade Federal de ViçosaViçosaBrazil

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