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Factors determining the distribution of a keystone understory taxon, dwarf bamboo of the section Crassinodi, on a national scale: application to impact assessment of climate change in Japan

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Forest Research

Abstract

The objective of this study was to identify climatic factors determining the distribution of a keystone understory taxon, section Crassinodi of the genus Sasa, and assess the impacts of climate change on the taxon. Relationships between the distribution of sect. Crassinodi and five climatic variables were explored using classification tree analysis. Potential habitats under current climate and future climate in 2081–2100 were predicted. Potential habitats were further divided into suitable and marginal habitats. The predictive accuracy of the model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis and by comparing model predictions with an independent dataset. The model was reasonably accurate. It showed that the warmth index (WI) and snow cover were the most important climatic variables for Crassinodi distribution. Potential habitats were limited to cooler regions with WI <102.7°C month. Suitable habitats were limited to even cooler regions with WI <84.8°C month. The model also showed that areas with deeper snow than previously reported would provide suitable habitats for Crassinodi under some climatic conditions. In 2081–2100, 37.4% of current potential habitats are predicted to become non-habitats because of increases in WI. Most currently suitable habitats are predicted to vanish from western Japan by 2081–2100. Meanwhile, Hokkaido and high-elevation areas of eastern Honshu will sustain suitable habitats. Sect. Crassinodi, which is adapted to less snowy climates, is predicted to be more affected by climate change than sect. Sasa and Macrochlamys, which are adapted to snowy climates.

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Abbreviations

WI:

Warmth index

TMC:

Mean of the daily minimum temperature of the coldest month

PRS:

Summer precipitation

MSW:

Maximum snow water equivalent

WR:

Winter rainfall

SDD:

Suzuki’s distribution data

PRDB:

Phytosociological Relevé Data Base

DWS:

Deviance-weighted score

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Acknowledgments

We thank Dr Akira Kato and Dr Erin Conlisk for their useful comments and language help on the manuscript. We also thank two anonymous reviewers, Dr Toshichika Iizumi, Dr Mifuyu Ogawa, Ms Yuko Ogawa, Mr Hiromu Daimaru, Dr Masatsugu Yasuda, and Ms Etsuko Nakazono for their valuable comments on the study. This study was funded by a program of the Global Environmental Research of Japan (S-4 and S-8), the Ministry of the Environment.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan

    Ikutaro Tsuyama, Katsuhiro Nakao & Nobuyuki Tanaka

  2. Toyota Biotechnology and Afforestation Laboratory, Toyota Motor Corporation, 1099 Aza Marune, Oaza Kurozasa, Miyosi-cho, Nishikamo-gun, Aichi, 470-0201, Japan

    Masahiro Horikawa

  3. Hokkaido Research Station, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 7 Hitsujigaoka, Toyohira-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 062-8516, Japan

    Tetsuya Matsui

  4. Kansai Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 68 Nagaikyutaro, Momoyama-cho, Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, 612-0855, Japan

    Yuji Kominami

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  1. Ikutaro Tsuyama
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  2. Masahiro Horikawa
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  3. Katsuhiro Nakao
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Correspondence to Ikutaro Tsuyama.

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10310_2011_283_MOESM1_ESM.eps

Fig. S1 Horizontal distributions of sect. Crassinodi based on the SDD generated from Suzuki (1978). Green boxes show the presence of sect. Crassinodi. The spatial resolution is about 10km. (EPS 159 kb)

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Tsuyama, I., Horikawa, M., Nakao, K. et al. Factors determining the distribution of a keystone understory taxon, dwarf bamboo of the section Crassinodi, on a national scale: application to impact assessment of climate change in Japan. J For Res 17, 137–148 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10310-011-0283-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10310-011-0283-4

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