Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Developing a management procedure robust to uncertainty for southern bluefin tuna: a somewhat frustrating struggle to bridge the gap between ideals and reality

  • Special Feature: Review
  • Adaptive Management
  • Published:
Population Ecology

Abstract

Fisheries management is conducted to achieve sustainable use of fishery resources, mainly through regulation of fishing activities. For almost a decade, the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT) struggled to reach agreement on a total allowable catch (TAC) for southern bluefin tuna (SBT) because of stock assessment uncertainties. To address this, in 2002 the CCSBT commenced development of a management procedure (MP), a pre-agreed set of rules to determine how the TAC will be adjusted as new monitoring data become available. The CCSBT Scientific Committee tested various candidate MPs using operating models which simulate fish population and fishery dynamics as well as incorporate process, observation, and model uncertainties. Candidate MPs were evaluated using performance measures related to the following management objectives: maximize catches, avoid stock collapse, and minimize interannual catch variation. Of the MPs explored, some relied solely on empirical data [i.e., adjusted TAC based on catch per unit effort (CPUE) trends], whereas others were more complicated, based on population models. In 2005, the CCSBT adopted a model-based MP that realized a moderate catch with low variability and avoided stock collapse. This MP struck a compromise between the risk-prone and risk-averse standpoints of the different stakeholders. However, despite this concerted scientific effort, the MP was not implemented because, shortly after its adoption, it became evident that historical catches may have been substantially underreported. This complication necessitates returning to near the beginning of the development process. MP approaches have various advantages and challenges to be explored further. However, it is essential to lessen human-introduced uncertainty (such as catch misreporting) by enhanced enforcement, and to increase management robustness to biological uncertainties by implementing MPs.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Taiwan (as the Fishing Entity of Taiwan) is a member of the Extended Commission (EC) and Extended Scientific Committee (ESC). In this article, however, the EC and ESC are referred to as the Commission and SC, respectively, because the EC and ESC shall perform the same task as the Commission and SC. In 2008, Indonesia also joined the Commission.

References

  • Basson M, Eveson P, Hartog J, Kolody D, Polacheck T (2005) Further exploration and evaluation of the FXR_01 candidate management procedure rule under the new reference and robustness sets. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-MP/0505/04

  • Beverton RJH, Holt SJ (1957) On the dynamics of exploited fish populations. HM Stationery Office, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Block BA, Teo SLH, Walli A, Boustany A, Stokesbury MJW, Farwell CJ, Weng KC, Dewar H, Williams TD (2005) Electronic tagging and population structure of Atlantic bluefin tuna. Nature 434:1121–1127

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Butterworth DS (2007) Why a management procedure approach? Some positives and negatives. ICES J Mar Sci 64:613–617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Butterworth DS (2008a) A commentary on: salvaged pearls: lessons learned from a floundering attempt to develop a management procedure for southern bluefin tuna. Fish Res 94:351–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Butterworth DS (2008b) Some lessons from implementing management procedures. In: Tsukamoto K, Kawamura T, Takeuchi T, Beard TD Jr, Kaiser MJ (eds) Fisheries for global welfare and environment. 5th World Fisheries Congress. TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp 381–398

    Google Scholar 

  • Butterworth DS, Mori M (2003) Some initial investigations of possible management procedure for SBT based upon age-aggregated production models. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-MP/0304/12

  • Butterworth DS, Mori M (2005) Results of a refined D&M management procedure applied to the Seattle 2005 Trials. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-MP/0505/06

  • Butterworth DS, Ianelli JN, Hilborn R (2003) A statistical model for stock assessment of southern bluefin tuna with temporal changes in selectivity. Afr J Mar Sci 25:331–361

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell D, Basson M (2008) Approaches for identification of appropriate reference points and implementation of MSE with the WCPO. Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission document. WCPFC-SC4-2008/GN-WP-10

  • CCSBT (1994) First meeting of the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna. May 1994. Wellington, New Zealand

    Google Scholar 

  • CCSBT (2000) Report of the special meeting. 16–18 November 2000. Canberra, Australia

  • CCSBT (2001) Report of the sixth meeting of the Scientific Committee. 28–31 August 2001. Tokyo, Japan

  • CCSBT (2002a) Report of the first management procedure workshop. 3–4 & 6–8 March 2002. Tokyo, Japan

  • CCSBT (2002b) Report of the third meeting of the Stock Assessment Group. 3–7 September 2002. Canberra, Australia

  • CCSBT (2002c) Report of the seventh meeting of the Scientific Committee. 9–11 September 2002. Canberra, Australia

  • CCSBT (2002d) Report of the ninth annual meeting of the Commission. 15–18 October 2002. Canberra, Australia

  • CCSBT (2003a) Report of the fourth meeting of the Stock Assessment Group. 25–29 August 2003. Christchurch, New Zealand

  • CCSBT (2003b) Report of the second meeting of the management procedure workshop. 7–9, 12 & 14–15 April 2003. Queenstown, New Zealand

  • CCSBT (2003c) Report of the eight meeting of the Scientific Committee. 1–4 September 2003. Christchurch, New Zealand

  • CCSBT (2003d) Report of the tenth annual meeting of the Commission. 7–10 October 2003. Christchurch, New Zealand

  • CCSBT (2004a) Report of the fifth meeting of the Stock Assessment Group. 6–11 September 2004. Jeju, Republic of Korea

  • CCSBT (2004b) Report of the third meeting of the management procedure workshop. 19–24 April 2004. Busan, Republic of Korea

  • CCSBT (2004c) Report of the ninth meeting of the Scientific Committee. 13–16 September 2004. Jeju, Republic of Korea

  • CCSBT (2004d) Report of the special meeting of the Commission. 26–27 April 2004. Busan, Republic of Korea

  • CCSBT (2004e) Report of the eleventh annual meeting of the Commission. 19–22 October 2004. Busan, Republic of Korea

  • CCSBT (2005a) Report of the special management procedure technical meeting. 15–18 February 2005. Seattle, USA

  • CCSBT (2005b) Report of the sixth meeting of the Stock Assessment Group. 29 August–3 September 2005. Taipei, Taiwan

  • CCSBT (2005c) Report of the fourth meeting of the management procedure workshop. 16–21 May 2005. Canberra, Australia

  • CCSBT (2005d) Report of the tenth meeting of the Scientific Committee. 9 September 2005. Narita, Japan

  • CCSBT (2005e) Report of the twelfth annual meeting of the Commission. 15 October 2005. Narita, Japan

  • CCSBT (2005f) Report of the management procedure special consultation. 23 May 2005. Canberra, Australia

  • CCSBT (2006a) Report of the special meeting of the Commission. 18–19 July 2006. Canberra, Australia

  • CCSBT (2006b) Report of the thirteenth annual meeting of the Commission. 10–13 October 2006. Miyazaki, Japan

  • CCSBT (2006c) Report of the seventh meeting of the Stock Assessment Group. 4–11 September 2006. Tokyo, Japan

  • CCSBT (2006d) Report of the eleventh meeting of the Scientific Committee. 12–15 September 2006. Tokyo, Japan

  • CCSBT (2007a) Report of the twelfth meeting of the Scientific Committee. 10–14 September 2007. Hobart, Australia

  • CCSBT (2007b) Report of the fourteenth annual meeting of the Commission. 16–19 October 2007. Canberra, Australia

  • CCSBT (2008a) Report of the ninth meeting of the Stock Assessment Group and the fifth meeting of the management procedure workshop. 2–7 September 2008. Rotorua, New Zealand

  • CCSBT (2008b) Report of the fifteenth annual meeting of the Commission. 14–17 October 2008. Auckland, New Zealand

  • CCSBT (2008c) Report of the thirteenth meeting of the Scientific Committee. 9–12 September 2008. Rotorua, New Zealand

  • CCSBT Secretariat (2008) Surface fishery tagging program. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-ESC/0809/7

  • Clark JS (2005) Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians. Ecol Lett 8:2–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Oliveira JAA, Kell LT, Punt AE, Roel BA, Butterworth DS (2008) Managing without best predictions: the Management Strategy Evaluation framework. In: Payne A, Cotter J, Potter T (eds) Advances in fisheries science. 50 years on from Beverton and Holt. Blackwell, Oxford, pp 104–134

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ellison AM (2004) Bayesian inference in ecology. Ecol Lett 7:509–520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eveson P, Bravington M, Farley J (2008) The aerial survey index of abundance: updated analysis methods and results. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-ESC/0809/24

  • Folke C (2007) Social-ecological systems and adaptive governance of the commons. Ecol Res 22:14–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fox WW (1975) Fitting the generalized stock production model by least-squares and equilibrium approximation. US Fish Bull 73:23–37

    Google Scholar 

  • Francis RICC, Shotton R (1997) “Risk” in fisheries management: a review. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 54:1699–1715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haist V (2004) Conditioning model for SBT MP testing (sbtmod7.tpl, June/04). Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna internal working paper

  • Haist V, Parma A, Ianelli J (2002) Initial specifications of operating models for southern bluefin tuna management procedure evaluation. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-SC/0209/07

  • Harwood J, Stokes K (2003) Coping with uncertainty in ecological advice: lessons from fisheries. Trends Ecol Evol 18:617–622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hilborn R (2007) Defining success in fisheries and conflicts in objectives. Mar Policy 31:153–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hilborn R, Mangel M (1997) The ecological detective. confronting models with data. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Hilborn R, Walters CJ (1992) Quantitative fisheries stock assessment: choice, dynamics and uncertainty. Chapman and Hall, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Hill SL, Watters GM, Punt AE, McAllister MK, Le Quere C, Turner J (2007) Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries. Fish Fish 8:315–336

    Google Scholar 

  • Hiramatsu K, Kurota H, Shono H, Takahashi N (2004) Behaviors of CPUE-based management procedures examined through the CCSBT final trial specifications. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-MP/0404/08

  • ICCAT (2007) Report of the 2006 Atlantic bluefin tuna stock assessment session. Col Vol Sci Pap ICCAT 60:652–880

    Google Scholar 

  • Itoh T, Sakai O (2008) Report of the piston-line trolling survey in 2007/2008. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-ESC/0809/41

  • IWC (1994) The revised management procedure (RMP) for baleen whales. Rep Int Whal Comm 44:145–152

    Google Scholar 

  • IWC (2005) Report of the Scientific Committee, Annex D. Report of the sub-committee on the revised management procedure. Appendix 2. Requirements and guidelines for implementation. J Cetacean Res Manage 7(Suppl):84–92

    Google Scholar 

  • Kell LT, Mosqueira I, Grosjean P, Fromentin J-M, Garcia D, Hillary R, Jardim E, Mardle S, Pastoors MA, Poos JJ, Scott F, Scott RD (2007) FLR: an open-source framework for the evaluation and development of management strategies. ICES J Mar Sci 64:640–646

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kolody D, Polacheck T, Basson M, Davies C (2008) Salvaged pearls: lessons learned from a floundering attempt to develop a management procedure for Southern Bluefin Tuna. Fish Res 94:339–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kurota H (2005) Performance of the HK5 management procedure under the new operating models. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-MP/0505/07

  • Kurota H, McAllister MK, Lawson GL, Nogueira JI, Teo SLH, Block BA (2009) A sequential Bayesian methodology to estimate movement and exploitation rates using electronic and conventional tag data: application to Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). Can J Fish Aquat Sci 66:321–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ludwig D, Mangel M, Haddad B (2001) Ecology, conservation and public policy. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 32:481–517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McAllister M, Kirchner C (2002) Accounting for structural uncertainty to facilitate precautionary fishery management: illustration with Namibian orange roughy. Bull Mar Sci 70:499–540

    Google Scholar 

  • Parma AM (2002) In search of robust harvest rules for Pacific halibut in the face of uncertain assessments and decadal changes in productivity. Bull Mar Sci 70:423–453

    Google Scholar 

  • Pascual MA, Kareiva P, Hilborn R (1997) The influence of model structure on conclusions about the viability and harvesting of Serengeti wildebeest. Conserv Biol 11:966–976

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Patterson K, Cook R, Darby C, Gavaris S, Kell L, Lewy P, Mesnil B, Punt A, Restrepo V, Skagen DW, Stefansson G (2001) Estimating uncertainty in fish stock assessment and forecasting. Fish Fish 2:125–157

    Google Scholar 

  • Plagányi ÉE, Rademeyer RA, Butterworth DS, Cunningham CL, Johnston SJ (2007) Making management procedures operational-innovations implemented in South Africa. ICES J Mar Sci 64:626–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Punt AE (2006) The FAO precautionary approach after almost 10 years: have we progressed towards implementing simulation-tested feedback-control management systems for fisheries management. Nat Res Model 19:441–464

    Google Scholar 

  • Punt AE, Donovan GP (2007) Developing management procedures that are robust to uncertainty: lessons from the International Whaling Commission. ICES J Mar Sci 64:603–612

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Punt AE, Hilborn R (1997) Fisheries stock assessment and decision analysis: the Bayesian approach. Rev Fish Biol Fisher 7:35–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rademeyer RA, Plagányi ÉE, Butterworth DS (2007) Tips and tricks in designing management procedures. ICES J Mar Sci 64:618–625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rice JC, Connolly PL (2007) Fisheries management strategies: an introduction by the conveners. ICES J Mar Sci 64:577–579

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schnute JT, Maunder MN, Ianelli JN (2007) Designing tools to evaluate fishery management strategies: can the scientific community deliver? ICES J Mar Sci 64:1077–1084

    Google Scholar 

  • Shea K, The NCEAS Working Group on Population Management (1998) Management of populations in conservation, harvesting and control. Trends Ecol Evol 13:371–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stokes TK, Butterworth DS, Stephenson RL, Payne AIL (1999) Confronting uncertainty in the evaluation and implementation of fisheries management systems. ICES J Mar Sci 56:795–796

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun CH (2005) An evaluation of the TAI candidate management procedure rules for southern bluefin tuna based on the updated reference set and robustness trails. Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna document. CCSBT-MP/0505/08

  • Walters CJ, Hilborn R (1976) Adaptive control of fishing systems. J Fish Res Board Can 33:145–159

    Google Scholar 

  • Walters CJ, Martell SJD (2004) Fisheries ecology and management. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank a number of colleagues in the CCSBT Scientific Committee for fruitful discussions on the SBT MP development exercise over many years. The entire MP development process required substantial effort by all members of the SC, in particular by Ana Parma as a coordinator as well as Vivian Haist and Trevor Branch as consultant programmers. We would like to express our gratitude to Doug Butterworth for his valuable comments and for improving our English phraseology in earlier versions of this manuscript. Dale Kolody, Marinelle Basson, and Chin-Hwa Sun provided valuable comments that improved this manuscript and/or gave us an opportunity to introduce MPs developed by them in ESM. We also thank Rob Ahrens and Nathan Taylor for improving the English. Two anonymous reviewers are thanked for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. This paper arises from projects funded by the Japan Fisheries Agency.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, Fisheries Research Agency, 5-7-1 Orido, Shimizu, Shizuoka, Shizuoka, 424-8633, Japan

    Hiroyuki Kurota, Norio Takahashi, Hiroshi Shono, Tomoyuki Itoh & Sachiko Tsuji

  2. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8564, Japan

    Kazuhiko Hiramatsu

  3. Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153, Rome, Italy

    Sachiko Tsuji

Authors
  1. Hiroyuki Kurota
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kazuhiko Hiramatsu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Norio Takahashi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Hiroshi Shono
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Tomoyuki Itoh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Sachiko Tsuji
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hiroyuki Kurota.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM (S1, S2) (PDF 300 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kurota, H., Hiramatsu, K., Takahashi, N. et al. Developing a management procedure robust to uncertainty for southern bluefin tuna: a somewhat frustrating struggle to bridge the gap between ideals and reality. Popul Ecol 52, 359–372 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-010-0201-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-010-0201-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation