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El-Nino Southern Oscillation simulated and predicted in SNU coupled GCMs

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Abstract

The characteristics of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated in free integrations using two versions of the Seoul National University (SNU) ocean–atmosphere coupled global climate model (CGCM) are examined. A revised version of the SNU CGCM is developed by incorporating a reduced air–sea coupling interval (from 1 day to 2 h), a parameterization for cumulus momentum transport, a minimum entrainment rate threshold for convective plumes, and a shortened auto-conversion time scale of cloud water to raindrops. With the revised physical processes, lower tropospheric zonal wind anomalies associated with the ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are represented with more realism than those in the original version. From too weak, the standard deviation of SST over the eastern Pacific becomes too strong in the revised version due to the enhanced air–sea coupling strength and intraseasonal variability associated with ENSO. From the oceanic side, the stronger stratification and the shallower-than-observed thermocline over the eastern Pacific also contribute to the excessive ENSO. The impacts of the revised physical processes on the seasonal predictability are investigated in two sets of the hindcast experiment performed using the two versions of CGCMs. The prediction skill measured by anomaly correlation coefficients of monthly-mean SSTA shows that the new version has a higher skill over the tropical Pacific regions compared to the old version. The better atmospheric responses to the ENSO-related SSTA in the revised version lead to the basin-wide SSTA maintained and developed in a manner that is closer to observations. The symptom of an excessively strong ENSO of the new version in the free integration is not prominent in the hindcast experiment because the thermocline depth over the eastern Pacific is maintained as initialized over the arc of time of the hindcast (7 months).

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Acknowledgments

ISK was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant Funded by the Korean Government (MEST) (NRF-2009-C1AAA001-2009-0093042) and second phase of the Brain Korea 21. And, DK was supported by NASA grant NNX09AK34G.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), Greenbelt, and Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Universities Space Research Association, Building 33, G109, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Yoo-Geun Ham

  2. School of Earth and Environment Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea

    In-Sik Kang

  3. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, NY, USA

    Daehyun Kim

  4. Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan, Korea

    Jong-Seong Kug

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  1. Yoo-Geun Ham
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  2. In-Sik Kang
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  4. Jong-Seong Kug
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Correspondence to Yoo-Geun Ham.

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Ham, YG., Kang, IS., Kim, D. et al. El-Nino Southern Oscillation simulated and predicted in SNU coupled GCMs. Clim Dyn 38, 2227–2242 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1171-5

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