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PET-based prognostic survival model after radiotherapy for head and neck cancer

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Abstract

Purpose

The aims of this multicentre retrospective study of locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC) treated with definitive radiotherapy were to (1) identify positron emission tomography (PET)-18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) parameters correlated with overall survival (OS) in a training cohort, (2) compute a prognostic model, and (3) externally validate this model in an independent cohort.

Materials and methods

A total of 237 consecutive LAHNC patients divided into training (n = 127) and validation cohorts (n = 110) were retrospectively analysed. The following PET parameters were analysed: SUVMax, metabolic tumour volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and SUVMean for the primary tumour and lymph nodes using a relative SUVMax threshold or an absolute SUV threshold. Cox analyses were performed on OS in the training cohort. The c-index was used to identify the highly prognostic parameters. A prognostic model was subsequently identified, and a nomogram was generated. The model was externally tested in the validation cohort.

Results

In univariate analysis, the significant PET parameters for the primary tumour included MTV (relative thresholds from 6 to 83% and absolute thresholds from 1.5 to 6.5) and TLG (relative thresholds from 1 to 82% and absolute thresholds from 0.5 to 4.5). For the lymph nodes, the significant parameters included MTV and TLG regardless of the threshold value. In multivariate analysis, tumour site, p16 status, MTV35% of the primary tumour, and MTV44% of the lymph nodes were independent predictors of OS. Based on these four parameters, a prognostic model was identified with a c-index of 0.72. The corresponding nomogram was generated. This prognostic model was externally validated, achieving a c-index of 0.66.

Conclusions

A prognostic model of OS based on primary tumour and lymph node MTV, tumour site, and p16 status was proposed and validated. The corresponding nomogram may be used to tailor individualized treatment.

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Funding

This work was partly supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation with grant agreement PZ00P2_154891 and 205320_179069 (A. Depeursinge).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Radiotherapy Department, Cancer Institute Eugène Marquis, 35000, Rennes, France

    Joël Castelli, E. Chajon & R. de Crevoisier

  2. INSERM, U1099, 35000, Rennes, France

    Joël Castelli, B. Campillo-Gimenez, O. Acosta & R. de Crevoisier

  3. University of Rennes 1, LTSI, 35000, Rennes, France

    Joël Castelli, B. Campillo-Gimenez, O. Acosta & R. de Crevoisier

  4. Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015, Lausanne, VD, Switzerland

    A. Depeursinge & Y. Dicente

  5. University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland, 3960, Sierre, Switzerland

    A. Depeursinge

  6. Nuclear Medicine Department, Cancer Institute Eugène Marquis, 35000, Rennes, France

    A. Devillers

  7. Clinical Research Direction, Cancer Institute Eugène Marquis, 35000, Rennes, France

    B. Campillo-Gimenez

  8. University of Geneva, 1211, Geneva, Switzerland

    Y. Dicente

  9. Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Department, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland

    J. O. Prior

  10. Head and Neck Department, CHU Rennes, F-35000, Rennes, France

    F. Jegoux

  11. Radiotherapy Department, Lorient Hospital, F-56100, Lorient, France

    C. Sire

  12. Radiotherapy Department, CHU Besançon, Besançon, France

    E. Gherga & X. Sun

  13. Radiotherapy Department, Hôpital Nord Franche Comté Montbéliard, Montbéliard, France

    X. Sun & B. De Bari

  14. Radiotherapy Department, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland

    J. Bourhis

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  1. Joël Castelli
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Correspondence to Joël Castelli.

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Castelli, J., Depeursinge, A., Devillers, A. et al. PET-based prognostic survival model after radiotherapy for head and neck cancer. Eur J Nucl Med Mol Imaging 46, 638–649 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00259-018-4134-9

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