Abstracts
Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10 % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and GDP worth roughly US $400 million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233 %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar.
Notes
Mangroves are salt-tolerant evergreen forests found along sheltered coastlines, shallow-water lagoons, estuaries, rivers or deltas in 124 tropical and subtropical countries and areas.
Data for extended periods are available for some countries. For example, coastal development in the Philippines has led to more than a 50 % loss of mangroves since 1900, mainly due to conversion for aquaculture (Primavera 2005).
Cyclones get their power from rising moisture, which releases heat during condensation. As a result, cyclones depend on warm sea temperatures and the difference between temperatures in the ocean and the upper atmosphere. At present, an increase in sea-surface temperature is strongly evident at all latitudes and in almost all ocean areas. If global warming increases temperatures at the earth’s surface but not the upper atmosphere, it is likely to provide tropical cyclones with more power (Emanuel et al. 2008). A sea-surface temperature of 28 °C is considered an important threshold for the development of major hurricanes of categories 3, 4 and 5 (Knutson and Tuleya 2004).
The Tropical cyclones surges (1975-2007) data are available for download from UNEP-PREVIEW, Genève (2009) at: http://preview.grid.unep.ch.
The migratory potential of mangroves also depends on a wide range of additional factors that are site-specific and highly variable; such as the continued flow of sediment and nutrients from inland stream. Such detailed information was not available on a global scale.
We agree with the anonymous reviewer of the paper that HDI, genuine savings/wealth are alternative indicators of human well-being, however these indicators are not currently available for all countries at a subnational level. Once these data are available at a subnational level, the methodology can be extended to include new indicators of human well-being in the future.
Storm surge refers to the temporary increase in the height of the sea level due to extreme meteorological conditions: low atmospheric pressure and/or strong winds (McIvor et al. 2015).
A 100 year storm surge has a 1 % chance of occurring in any given year.
We acknowledge that the assumption of 10 % increment is conservative, as a review of the regional studies of storm surges reveals predictions of storm surge height in 1-in-100 year events that are generally above 10 %. See Brecht et al. (2012) for sensitivity analysis.
We used ESRI ArcGIS 10.1 Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to extract the sum of the values of the population and GDP models that intersect the storm surge exposure areas.
Some researchers, who are skeptical about the ability of mangroves to protect against tsunamis, have noted that mangroves might be more capable of protecting against tropical storm surges (Chatenoux and Peduzzi 2007). Storm surges differ from tsunamis in having shorter wavelengths and relatively more of their energy near the water surface (McIvor et al. 2015). Theoretical models indicate that mangroves attenuate shorter waves more than longer waves (Massel et al. 1999); and field experiments confirm that relatively narrow strips of mangroves can substantially reduce the energy of wind-driven waves (Mazda et al. 2006).
For example, Primavera and Esteban (2008) found mixed results reviewing efforts in the Philippines.
For a list of mangrove resilience factors that inform site selection, see McLeod and Salm (2006, pp. 20–21).
References
Alongi, D. 2008. Mangrove forests: Resiliance, protection from tsunamis and responses to global climate change. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 76: 1–13.
Bamber, J.L., and W.P. Aspinall. 2013. An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets. Nature Climate Change 3: 424–427.
Barbier, E.B., E.W. Koch, B.R. Silliman, S. Hackaer, E. Wolanski, J. Primavera, E.F. Granek, S. Polasky, et al. 2008. Coastal ecosystem-based management with nonlinear ecological functions and values. Science 319: 321.
Barbier, E. 2009. Valuation of ecosystem services. In Ecosystem-based management for the oceans: Applying resilience thinking, ed. K. McLeod, and H. Leslie. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Barbier, E. 2015. Climate change impacts on rural poverty in low-elevation coastal zones. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 165: A1–A13.
Bender, M.A., T.R. Knutson, R.E. Tuleya, J.J. Sirutis, G.A. Vecchi, S.T. Garner, and I.M. Held. 2010. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327: 454–458.
Brecht, H., S. Dasgupta, B. Laplante, S. Murray, and D. Wheeler. 2012. Sea-level rise and storm surges: High stakes for a small number of developing countries. The Journal of Environment & Development 21: 120–138.
Bright, E., P. Coleman, and A. King. 2006. Landscan 2005. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN.
Chatenoux, B., and P. Peduzzi. 2007. Impacts from the 2004 Indian Tsunami: Analyzing the potential protecting role of environmental features. Natural Hazards 40: 289–304.
Dasgupta, S., M. Huq, Z. Huq Khan, M.M. Zahid Ahmed, N. Mukherjee, M.F. Khan, and K. Pandey. 2010. Vulnerability of Bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate. 5280. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, S. Murray, and D. Wheeler. 2011. Exposure of developing countries to sea-level rise and storm surges. Climatic Change 106: 567–579.
DeConto, R.M., and D. Pollard. 2016. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531: 591–597.
Dobson, J.E., E.A. Brlght, P.R. Coleman, R.C. Durfee, and B.A. Worley. 2000. LandScan: A global population database for estimating populations at risk. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 66: 849–857.
Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams. 2008. Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89: 347–367.
FAO. 2007 The world’s mangroves 1980–2005, FAO Forest Strategy Paper 153.
Gillet-Chaulet, F., O. Gagliardini, H. Seddik, M. Nodet, G. Durand, C. Ritz, T. Zwinger, R. Greve, et al. 2012. Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model. The Cryosphere 6: 1561–1576.
Gilman, E., and J. Ellison. 2007. Efficacy of alternative low-cost approaches to mangrove restoration, American Samoa. Estuaries and Coasts 33: 641–651.
Giri, C., E. Ochieng, L.L. Tieszen, Z. Zhu, A. Singh, T. Loveland, J. Masek, and N. Duke. 2010. Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 1–6.
Hamilton, S., and D. Casey. 2014. Creation of a high spatiotemporal resolution global database of continuous mangrove forest cover for the 21st Century (CGMFC-21): A big-data fusion approach. arXiv:1412.0722.
Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, et al. 2015. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming is highly dangerous. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 15: 20059–20179.
Hanson, S., R. Nicholls, N. Ranger, S. Hallegatte, J. Corfee-Morlot, C. Herweijer, and J. Chateau. 2011. A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes. Climatic Change 104: 89–111.
Hay, C.C., et al. 2015. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Nature 517.7535: 481–484.
Hoozemans, F.M.J., M. Marchand, and H.A. Pennekamp. 1993. Sea level rise: A global vulnerability assessment. 2nd revised edition. The Hague: Delft Hydraulics and Tidal Waters Division, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management.
IPCC. 2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.
Institute for Water Modeling (IWM). 2000. Effect of afforestation on storm surge propagation for coastal embankment rehabilitation project. Dhaka: IWM, Mimeo.
Jacob, T., et al. 2012. Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise. Nature 482.7386: 514–518.
Knutson, T.R., et al. 2013. Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios. Journal of Climate 26.17: 6591–6617.
Knutson, T.R., et al. 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience 3.3: 157–163.
Knutson, T.R., and R.E. Tuleya. 2004. Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. Journal of Climate 17: 3477–3495.
Kumura, M.P., L.P. Jayatissa, K.W. Krauss, D.H. Phillips, and M. Huxham. 2010. High Mangrove density enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise. Oecologia 164: 545–553.
Lange, G.M., S. Dasgupta, T. Thomas, S. Murray, B. Blankespoor, K. Sander, and T. Essam. 2010. Economics of adaptation to climate change-ecosystem services. The World Bank Discussion Paper No. 7.
Lehner, B., K. Verdin, and A. Jarvis. 2008. New global hydrography derived from spaceborne elevation data. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 89: 93–104.
Lin, N., and K. Emanuel. 2016. Grey swan tropical cyclones. Nature Climate Change 6: 106–111.
Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimmer, and E. Vanmarcke. 2012. Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature Climate Change 6: 462–467.
Massel, S.R., K. Furukawa, and R.M. Brinkman. 1999. Surface wave propagation in mangrove forests. Fluid Dynamics Research 24: 219–249.
Mazda, Y., M. Michimasa, Y. Ikeda, T. Kurokawa, and A. Tetsumi. 2006. Water reduction in a mangrove forest dominated by Sonneratis sp. Wetlands Ecology and Management 14: 365–378.
McIvor, A., I. Moller, T. Spencer, and M.D. Spalding. 2012. Reduction of wind and swell by mangroves. The nature conservancy. Natural Coastal Protection Series: Report 1: Cambridge Coastal Research Unit Working Paper 40.
McIvor, A., T. Spencer, M. Spalding, C. Lacambra, and I. Möller. 2015. Chapter 14 - mangroves, tropical cyclones, and coastal hazard risk reduction A2 - Shroder, John F. In Coastal and marine hazards, risks, and disasters, ed. J.T. Ellis, and D.J. Sherman, 403–429. Boston: Elsevier.
Mcleod, E., and R.V. Salm. 2006. Managing mangroves for resilience to climate change, 64. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN.
Narayan, S., M. Beck, B. Reguero, I. Losada, B. van Wesenbeeck, N. Pontee, J. Sanchirico, J. Ingram, et al. 2016. The benefits, costs and effectiveness of natural and nature-based coastal defenses. Paper submitted to PLOS.
Nicholls, R.J., S. Brown, and S. Hanson. 2010. Economics of coastal zone: Adaptation to climate change. The World Bank Environment Department Paper No. 10. http://beta.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/documents/DCCDP_10_CoastalZoneAdaptation.pdf.
Pinsky, M.L., G. Guannel, and K.K. Arkema. 2013. Quantifying wave attenuation to inform coastal habitat conservation. Ecosphere 4: art95.
Primavera, J.H. 2005. Mangroves, fishponds, and the quest for sustainability. Science 310: 57–59.
Primavera, J., and J. Esteban. 2008. A review of mangrove rehabilitation in the Philippines: Successes, failures and future prospects. Wetlands Ecology and Management 16: 345–358.
Quartel, S., A. Kroon, P.G.E.F. Augustinus, P. Van Santen, and N.H. Tri. 2007. Wave attenuation in coastal mangroves in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 29: 576–584.
Sheng, Y.P., Lapetina, A., and Ma, G. 2012. The reduction of storm surge by vegetation canopies: Three‐dimensional simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 39.
Shortridge, A., and J. Messina. 2011. Spatial Structure and landscape association of SRTM error. Remote Sensing of Environment 115: 1576–1587.
Spalding, M., M. Kainuma, and L. Collins. 2010. World atlas of mangroves, 319. London: Earthscan.
UNEP-WCMC. 2006. In the front line: Shoreline protection and other ecosystem services from mangroves and coral reefs, 33. Cambridge: UNEP-WCMC.
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. 2011. Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction: Revealing risk, redefining development. Geneva: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.
Vafeidis, A.T., R.J. Nicholls, L. McFadden, R.S.J. Tol, J. Hinkel, T. Spencer, P.S. Grashoff, G. Boot, et al. 2008. A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research 24: 917–924.
Wolanski, E. 2006. Synthesis of the protective functions of coastal forests and trees against natural hazards. In Coastal protection in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami: What role for forests and trees?, Braatz, S., S. Fortuna, J. Broadhead, and R. Leslie, ed. Proceedings of the Regional Technical Workshop, Khao Lak, Thailand, August 28–31, 2006.
Zhang, K., H. Liu, Y. Li, H. Xu, J. Shen, J. Rhome, and T.J. Smith. 2012. The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 102–103: 11–23.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Chandra Giri (United States Geological Survey) for providing the mangrove presence data necessary to conduct the analysis. We extend a special thanks to Anna McIvor (University of Cambridge) for her insight on the analysis, particularly the formulation of the wave attenuation functions. We also thank Mark Spalding (University of Cambridge and The Nature Conservancy) for his guidance on the mangrove results, Ed Barbier (University of Wyoming) for his thoughtful review of this research, Peter Mumby (University of Queensland), and Mike Beck (The Nature Conservancy) for their insights on this analysis. We are thankful to Zahirul Huque Khan (Institute of Water Modeling, Bangladesh) for sharing the technical analysis of mangrove afforestation in Hatia island. We also thank the participants of the “State of the Knowledge of the Protective Services and Values of Mangrove and Coral Reef Ecosystems”, organized by The Nature Conservancy and the World Bank WAVES Partnership, at the University of California, Santa Cruz, United States, December 3–4, 2014. We also thank the participants of the presentation at the Association of American Geographers Annual Conference, Chicago, US, April 25, 2015.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Authors’ names are in alphabetical order. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Blankespoor, B., Dasgupta, S. & Lange, GM. Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate. Ambio 46, 478–491 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0838-x
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0838-x