Synthese

, Volume 192, Issue 9, pp 2887–2899

A Dutch book against sleeping beauties who are evidential decision theorists

Article

DOI: 10.1007/s11229-015-0691-7

Cite this article as:
Conitzer, V. Synthese (2015) 192: 2887. doi:10.1007/s11229-015-0691-7

Abstract

In the context of the Sleeping Beauty problem, it has been argued that so-called “halfers” can avoid Dutch book arguments by adopting evidential decision theory. I introduce a Dutch book for a variant of the Sleeping Beauty problem and argue that evidential decision theorists fall prey to it, whether they are halfers or thirders. The argument crucially requires that an action can provide evidence for what the agent would do not only at other decision points where she has exactly the same information, but also at decision points where she has different but “symmetric” information.

Keywords

Self-locating beliefs Sleeping Beauty problem  Evidential decision theory Dutch books 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Duke UniversityDurhamUSA

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