Abstract
A number of knowledge gaps and research priorities emerged during the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Several are also gaps in the latest IPCC WG2 report. These omissions reflect major gaps in the underlying research base from which these assessments draw. These include the challenge of estimating the costs and benefits of climate change impacts and responses to climate change and the need for research on climate impacts on important sectors such as manufacturing and services. Climate impacts also need to be assessed within an international context in an increasingly connected and globalized world. Climate change is being experienced not only through changes within a locality but also through the impacts of climate change in other regions connected through trade, prices, and commodity chains, migratory species, human mobility and networked communications. Also under-researched are the connections and tradeoffs between responses to climate change at or across different scales, especially between adaptation and mitigation or between climate responses and other environmental and social policies. This paper discusses some of these research priorities, illustrating their significance through analysis of economic and international connections and case studies of responses to climate change. It also critically reflects on the process of developing research needs as part of the assessment process.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abe M, Ye L (2013) Building Resilient Supply Chains against Natural Disasters: The Cases of Japan and Thailand Global Business Review 14:567-586
Agrawal A, Lemos MC, Orlove B, Ribot J (2012) Cool heads for a hot world – Social sciences under a changing sky. Glob Environ Chang 22:329–331
Amado J-C, Adams P, Coleman H, Schuchard R (2013) PREP, Value Chain Climate Resilience. Acclimatise, Oxford
Anderegg WR, Prall JW, Harold J, Schneider SH (2010) Expert credibility in climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109
Arent DJ and Tol RSJ (2014) Key Economic Sectors and Services. In: Field CB, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds) IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Aon Benfield (2012) 2011 Thailand Floods Event Recap Report. Aon Benfield Analytics
Barsugli JJ et al (2013) The practitioner's dilemma: how to assess the credibility of downscaled climate projections. Eos Trans AGU 94(46):424
Berkhout F (2010) Reconstructing boundaries and reason in the climate debate. Glob Environ Chang 20:565–569
Buizer, J.L., Paul Fleming, Sharon L. Hays, Kirstin Dow, Christopher B. Field, David Gustafson, Amy Luers, and Richard H. Moss, Report on Preparing the Nation for Change: Building a Sustained National Climate Assessment Process, National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee, 2013.
Carey M, James LC, Fuller HA (2014) A new social contract for the IPCC. Nat Clim Change 4:1038–1039. doi:10.1038/nclimate2442
Castree N et al (2014) Changing the intellectual climate Nature. Clim Change 4:763–768. doi:10.1038/nclimate2339
Clapp J (2014) Financialization, distance and global food politics. J Peasant Stud 1–18
Clapp J, Helleiner E (2012) Troubled futures? The global food crisis and the politics of agricultural derivatives regulation. Rev Int Polit Econ 19(2):181–207
Corell RW, Liverman D, Dow K, Ebi KL, Kunkel K, Mearns LO, Melillo J (2014) Chapter 29: Research Needs for Climate and Global Change Assessments. In: Melillo JM, Richmond TC, Yohe GW (eds) Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research, Program, pp 707–718
Courbage C, Stahel WR eds. (2012) The Geneva Reports- Risk and Insurance Research No. 5 Extreme Events and Insurance 2011. The Geneva Association,
Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA (2013) What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature, National Bureau of Economic Research
Field CB, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds) (2014) IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
Global Change Research Program US (2012) The National Global Change Research Plan 2012-2021. A Strategic Plan for the US Global Change Research Program. US Global Change Research Program, Washington DC
Griggs D (2014) Climate policy: Streamline IPCC reports. Nature 508:171–173
Grundmann R (2012) The legacy of climategate: revitalizing or undermining climate science and policy? Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 3:281–288
Hackmann H, Moser SC, Clair ALS (2014) The social heart of global environmental change. Nat Clim Change 4:653–655
Hall JA, Blair M, Buizer JL, Gustafson DI, Holland B, Moser SC, Waple AM (2014) Chapter 30: Sustained Assessment: A New Vision for Future U.S. Assessments. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, U.S. Global Change Research Program. In: Melillo JM, Richmond TC, Yohe GW (eds) Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research, Program, pp 719–726
Haraguchi M, Lall U (2013) Flood Risks and Impacts: Future Research Questions and Implication to Private Investment Decision Making for Supply Chain Networks. UNISDR, Geneva
Hulme M (2010) Problems with making and governing global kinds of knowledge. Global Environ Chang 20:558–564. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.005
Ingram JSI, Ericksen P, Liverman DM (2010) Food security and global environmental change. Earthscan, London
Jankó F, Móricz N, Vancsó JP (2014) Reviewing the climate change reviewers: Exploring controversy through report references and citations. Geoforum 56:17–34
Jarmin RS, Miranda J (2009) The impact of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma on business establishments. J Bus Valuation Econ Loss Analys 4(2)
Jasanoff S (2010) Testing time for climate science. Science 328:695–696
Jira C, Toffel MW (2013) Engaging supply chains in climate change. Manuf Serv Oper Manag 15(4):559–577
Jones N (2013) Climate assessments: 25 years of the IPCC. Nature 501:298–299
Lahsen M (2013) Climategate: the role of the social sciences. Clim Chang 119:547–558
Leichenko RM, Thomas A (2012) Coastal cities and regions in a changing climate: economic impacts, risks and vulnerabilities. Geography Compass 6:327–339
Leichenko R, McDermott M, Bezborodko E, Brady M, Namendorf E (2014) Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in Coastal New Jersey: A Stakeholder-Based Assessment. J Extreme Events 01(01):1450003. doi:10.1142/S2345737614500031
Lemos MC, Morehouse BJ (2005) The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments. Glob Environ Chang 15:57–68
Lemos MC, Kirchhoff CJ, Ramprasand V (2012) Narrowing the climate information usability gap. Nat Clim Chang 2:789–794
Lemos MC, Kirchhoff CJ, Kalafatis SE, Scavia D, Rood RB (2014) Moving Climate Information off the Shelf: Boundary Chains and the Role of RISAs as Adaptive Organizations. Weather, Clim, Soc 6:273–285
Linnenluecke MK, Stathakis A, Griffiths A (2011) Firm relocation as adaptive response to climate change and weather extremes. Glob Environ Chang 21(1):123–133
Liu J, Hull V, Batistella M, DeFries R, Dietz T, Feng F, Thomas W, Hertel RC, Izaurralde EF, Lambin SL, Luiz A, Martinelli WMC, Emilio F, Moran RN, Ouyang Z, Karen R, Polenske AR, de Miranda G, Rocha CA, Simmons PH, Verburg PV, Zhang F, Zhu C (2013) Framing Sustainability in a Telecoupled World. Ecol Soc 18:26
Mantell N.H., Seneca JJ, Lahr ML, Irving W (2013) The economic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey Rutgers Regional Report vol Issue Paper 34. Rutgers University
Marshall M, Schrank H (2014) Small business disaster recovery: a research framework. Nat Hazards 72:597–616. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-1025-z
Melillo J, Richmond T. and Yohe G (2014) Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. US Glob Chang Res Program
National Research Council (1992) Global Environmental Change: Understanding the Human Dimensions. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
National Research Council (2007) Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
National Research Council (NRC) Committee on America's Climate Choices (2010) Advancing the Science of Climate Change: America's Climate Choices. National Academies Press
Peck H (2006) Reconciling supply chain vulnerability, risk and supply chain management. Int J Logist: Res Appl 9(2):127–142
Rosenzweig C, Solecki W (2014) Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in New York: Lessons from a first-responder city Global Environmental Change (in press)
Schrank H, Marshall M, Hall-Phillips A, Wiatt R, Jones N (2013) Small-business demise and recovery after Katrina: rate of survival and demise. Nat Hazards 65:2353–2374. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0480-2
Shapiro HT et al. (2010) Climate change assessments: Review of the processes and procedures of the IPCC InterAcademy Council, Amsterdam
Smith MH (2013) A Fundamental Approach to Facilities Location Risk Assessment and Its Relevance to Supply Chain Network Design: Using the Thai Floods of 2011 as an Example International Journal of Trade. Econ Finance 4(5):300–3013
Stern PC, Ebi KL, Leichenko R, Olson RS, Steinbruner JD, Lempert R (2013) Managing risk with climate vulnerability science. Nat Clim Chang 3:607–609. doi:10.1038/nclimate1929
Stocker TF (2013) Adapting the assessments. Nat Geosci 6:7–8
Thorpe J, Fennell S (2012) Climate Change Risks and Supply Chain Responsibility. Oxfam International, Oxford UK
Tol RS (2011) Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC. Clim Chang 108:827–839
US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2014) GDP by state and sector. http://bea.gov/iTable/index_regional.cfm
US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2015) Industry and GDP. http://bea.gov/industry/
US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2015) Employment by major sector. http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm
US Department of Commerce (2013) Economic Impact of Hurricane Sandy. U.S. Department of Commerce
USGCRP (Global Change Research Program). 1990. US Global Change Research Act (see http://www.globalchange.gov/about/legal-mandate)
Viner D, Howarth C (2014) Practitioners’ work and evidence in IPCC reports. Nat Clim Change 4:848–850
Von Braun J, Tadesse G (2012) Global food price volatility and spikes: an overview of costs, causes, and solutions. ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy
Weaver C et al (2014) From global change science to action with social sciences. Nat Clim Chang 4:656–659
Webb G, Tierney K, Dahlhamer J (2000) Businesses and Disasters: Empirical Patterns and Unanswered Questions. Nat Hazards Rev 1:83–90. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2000)1:2(83)
Whitmarsh L, O'Neill S, Lorenzoni I (2011) Climate change or social change? Debate within, amongst, and beyond disciplines. Environ Planning A 43:258–261
Wilbanks T and Fernandez S (2012) Climate Change Energy Supply and Use: Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge. Wilbanks T (2012) Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems and Vulnerability: Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge.
Winkler JA, Thornsbury S, Artavio M, Chmielewski F-M, Kirschke D, Lee S, Liszewska M, Loveridge S, Tan P-N, Zhong S, Andresen JA, Black JR, Kurlus R, Nizalov D, Olynk N, Ustrnul Z, Zavalloni C, Bisanz JM, Bujdosó G, Fusina L, Henniges Y, Hilsendegen P, Lar K, Malarzewski L, Moeller T, Murmylo R, Niedzwiedz T, Nizalova O, Prawiranata H, Rothwell N, van Ravensway J, von Witzke H, Woods M (2010) Multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments: A conceptual framework. Clim Chang 103:445–470
Xiao Y, Nilawar U (2013) Winners and losers: analysing post-disaster spatial economic demand shift. Disasters 37:646–668. doi:10.1111/disa.12025
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank her co-authors on Chapter 29 on Research Needs for Climate and Global Change of the National Climate Assessment including Robert Corell, Kirstin Dow, Kristie Ebi, Ken Kunkel, Linda Mearns and Jerry Melillo; Amy Glasmeier for conversations about the structure of the US Economy; and sponsors of research on drought and climate impacts including NSF EASM award 1243125, the NOAA IRAP grant to the University of Arizona and the Guggenheim Foundation.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is part of a special issue on “The National Climate Assessment: Innovations in Science and Engagement” edited by Katharine Jacobs, Susanne Moser, and James Buizer.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liverman, D. U.S. National climate assessment gaps and research needs: overview, the economy and the international context. Climatic Change 135, 173–186 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5