Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessing the vulnerability of Australian skinks to climate change

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A framework for assessing species vulnerability to climate change was developed and applied to the largest family of reptiles in Australia, the scincid lizards (skinks). This framework integrated the projections of environmental niche models (ENMs) with an index of vulnerability based on the species’ ecological traits. We found vulnerability to be highly variable among species, suggesting that responses to climate change will be idiosyncratic, and identified a number of species that by virtue of their ecological traits and model projections may be at risk of significant range contractions in the near future. Importantly, we also found that extrinsic vulnerability (as measured by the degree of range change) and intrinsic vulnerability (based on species traits) were not correlated, highlighting the importance of considering both types of information. This framework provides a transparent and objective tool for assessing climate change vulnerability and can provide a basis upon which to develop conservation strategies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Busby JR (1991) BIOCLIM - a bioclimate analysis and prediction system. In: Margules CR, Austin MP (eds) Nature conservation: cost effective biological surveys and data analysis. CSIRO, Canberra, pp 64–68

    Google Scholar 

  • Cabrelli A, Stow A, Hughes L (2014) A framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change: a case study of the Australian elapid snakes. Biodivers Conserv. doi:10.1007/s10531-014-0760-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Cadby CD, Jones SM, Wapstra E (2014) Geographical differences in maternal basking behavior and offspring growth rate in a climatically widespread viviparous reptile. J Exp Biol 217:1175–1179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chin A, Kyne PM, Walker TI, McAuley RB (2010) An integrated risk assessment for climate change: analysing the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Glob Chang Biol 16:1936–1953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cogger H, Cameron E, Sadlier R, Eggler P (1993) The action plan for Australian reptiles. Australian Nature Conservation Agency, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) (2007) Climate change in Australia - technical report 2007. CSIRO, Aspendale, Australia. Available online at: http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/technical_report.php. Accessed 25 June 2012

  • Department of the Environment (2014) Guidelines for assessing the conservation status of native species according to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (the EPBC Act) and EPBC Regulations 2000. Department of the Environment, Canberra, Australia. Available online at: http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/d72dfd1a-f0d8-4699-8d43-5d95bbb02428/files/guidelines-species.pdf

  • Dubey S, Shine R (2010) Restricted dispersal and genetic diversity in populations of an endangered montane lizard (Eulamprus leuraensis, Scincidae). Mol Ecol 19:886–897

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dubey S, Shine R (2011) Predicting the effects of climate change on reproductive fitness of an endangered montane lizard, Eulamprus leuraensis (Scincidae). Clim Chang 107:531–547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fitzpatrick MC, Gove AD, Sanders NJ, Dunn RR (2008) Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia. Glob Chang Biol 14:1337–1352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heller NE, Zavaleta ES (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv 142:14–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobday AJ, Okey TA, Poloczanska ES, Kunz TJ, Richardson AJ (2006) Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life: Part B. Technical report. Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsu C-C, Sandford BA (2007) The Delphi technique: making sense of consensus. Pract Assess Res Eval 12:1–8

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes L (2003) Climate change and Australia: trends, projections and impacts. Austr Ecol 28:423–443

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hutchinson M (1993) Family scincidae. In: Glasby CG, Ross GJB, Beesley PL (eds) Fauna of Australia, vol 2A, Amphibia and reptilia. AGPS, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson JE, Marshall PA (2007) Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef: a vulnerability assessment. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Marmion M, Parviainen M, Luoto M, Heikkinen RK, Thuiller W (2009) Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling. Divers Distrib 15:59–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olsson M, Shine R (1999) Phenotypic plasticity of reproductive frequency in the snow skink, Niveoscincus microlepidotus. Copeia 1999(3):794–796

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pianka ER (1969a) Habitat specificity, speciation, and species density in Australian desert lizards. Ecology 50:498–502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pianka ER (1969b) Sympatry of desert lizards (Ctenotus) in Western Australia. Ecology 50:1012–1030

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reisinger A, Kitching R, Chiew F, Hughes L, Newton P, Schuster S, Tait A, Whetton P (2014) Chapter 25: Australasia. In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group II, Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability. IPCC, Geneva

  • Shine R (1985) The reproductive biology of Australian reptiles: a search for general patterns. In: Grigg G, Shine R, Ehmann H (eds) Biology of Australasian frogs and reptiles. Surrey Beatty & Sons Pty Ltd, Chipping Norton, pp 297–303

    Google Scholar 

  • Shine R, Elphick MJ, Donnellan S (2002) Co-occurrence of multiple, supposedly incompatible modes of sex determination in a lizard population. Ecol Lett 5:486–489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simpson EH (1949) Measurement of diversity. Nature 163:688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steffen W, Burbidge AA, Hughes L, Kitching R, Lindenmayer D, Musgrave W, Stafford Smith M, Werner PA (2009) Australia’s biodiversity and climate change: a strategic assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s biodiversity to climate change. A report to the natural resource management ministerial council commissioned by the Australian Government. CSIRO Publishing, Victoria

    Google Scholar 

  • Telemeco RS, Elphick MJ, Shine R (2009) Nesting lizards (Bassiana duperreyi) compensate partly, but not completely, for climate change. Ecology 90:17–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas CD (2011) Translocation of species, climate change, and the end of trying to recreate past ecological communities. Trends Ecol Evol 26:216–221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Threatened Species Scientific Committee (TSSC) (2009) Commonwealth conservation advice on Cyclodomorphus praealtus (Alpine She-oak Skink). Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts. Canberra, ACT. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/64721-conservation-advice.pdf. Accessed 29/08/14

  • Thuiller W (2003) BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global changes. Glob Chang Biol 9:1353–1362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2009) A framework for categorizing the relative vulnerability of threatened and endangered species to climate change. National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC; EPA/600/R-09/011. Available from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA, and online at http://www.epa.gov/ncea. Accessed 01/09/2014

  • Whetton P (2011) Future Australian climate scenarios. In: Cleugh H, Smith MS, Battaglia M, Graham P (eds) Climate change: science and solutions for Australia. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, pp 35–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams SE, Bolitho EE, Fox S (2003) Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 270:1887–1892

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams SE, Shoo LP, Isaac JL, Hoffmann AA, Langham G (2008) Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change. PLoS Biol 6:2621–2626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson S, Swan G (2008) A complete guide to reptiles of Australia. New Holland Publishers (Australia) Pty Ltd, Sydney

    Google Scholar 

  • Wisz MS, Hijmans RJ, Li J, Peterson AT, Graham CH, Guisan A (2008) Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Divers Distrib 14:763–773

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank the Western Australian Museum, the Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery and the NSW Parks and Wildlife Service for access to their reptile locality records. Thanks to P. Wilson, L. Beaumont, D. Duursma and M. Steel for help with the environmental niche modelling. We are indebted to R. Shine, J. Webb, M. Bull, E. Wapstra, M. Thomson, H. Heatwole, N. Mitchell and A. Stow for their participation in the Delphi process and to H. Cogger for his encouragement and advice. The comments of two anonymous reviewers greatly improved an earlier draft of this manuscript. This research was funded by a Macquarie University Research Excellence Scholarship to AC.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia

    Abigail L. Cabrelli & Lesley Hughes

Authors
  1. Abigail L. Cabrelli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Lesley Hughes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Abigail L. Cabrelli.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Online Resource 1

Table of trait values and projected change in climatic range size for each species, and the vulnerability group to which they were assigned. (XLSX 43 kb)

Online Resource 2

Species trait scores plotted against their projected change in range size. Each species has been assigned to one of six biogeographic zones based on their realised distributions: tropical / subtropical (86 species), temperate (39 species), arid / semi-arid (122 species), eastern (26 species), Mediterranean (17 species) and multiregional (25 species) (PDF 92 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cabrelli, A.L., Hughes, L. Assessing the vulnerability of Australian skinks to climate change. Climatic Change 130, 223–233 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1358-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1358-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation