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Assessing biodiversity vulnerability to climate change: testing different methodologies for Portuguese herpetofauna

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Abstract

Assessing biodiversity vulnerability to future climate change is essential for developing robust adaptation strategies. A number of vulnerability assessment methodologies have been developed, from bioclimatic envelop models to more complex approaches that also consider biological traits and population status. However, the lack of comparative studies leaves the user to choose among the different methodologies without much guidance. This study applied three vulnerability assessment approaches to the Portuguese herpetofauna: (I) impact assessment approach based on bioclimatic models; (II) integrated vulnerability assessment approach, adding the evaluation of adaptive capacity to approach I; and (III) integrated vulnerability assessment and validation based on expert consultation. Results showed disagreement between the different approaches for 19 % of the species studied. Most differences were found between approach III and the two other approaches. All approaches showed advantages and limitations, the choice of a methodology being ultimately dependent on the study goals. Approach I has proven efficient to capture general vulnerability patterns. Approach II, although presenting results similar to approach I, allows for the identification of key factors affecting the species adaptive capacity and may be useful in tailoring adaptation measures. Approach III further allows us to identify knowledge gaps and to evaluate vulnerability when data availability or quality is reduced. Further, because this approach is based on an expert workshop, it has proven a perfect means to build on the vulnerability assessment results to identify indicator species and prioritize specific adaptation options.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the support of the ICNF technicians Emília Silva e Paula Rito Araújo and all the experts that contributed to the study: Ana Luísa Nunes (FCUL), Fernando Martinez Freiria (CIBIO), Helena Gonçalves (CIBIO), José Carlos Brito (CIBIO-UP), José Teixeira (CIBIO-UP), Miguel A. Carretero (CIBIO-UP), Pedro Segurado (UTL), Sílvia Carvalho (CIBIO-UP), Xavier Santos (CIBIO-UP). EMRR was funded by the Research Foundation—Flanders (FWO, Flanders, Belgium).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal

    Maria João Cruz, Elisabeth Maria Rogier Robert, Tiago Costa, David Avelar, Rui Rebelo & Mário Pulquério

  2. Laboratory of Plant Biology and Nature Management (APNA), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050, Brussels, Belgium

    Elisabeth Maria Rogier Robert

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  1. Maria João Cruz
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  2. Elisabeth Maria Rogier Robert
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  3. Tiago Costa
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  4. David Avelar
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  6. Mário Pulquério
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Correspondence to Maria João Cruz.

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Editor: Ülo Mander.

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Cruz, M.J., Robert, E.M.R., Costa, T. et al. Assessing biodiversity vulnerability to climate change: testing different methodologies for Portuguese herpetofauna. Reg Environ Change 16, 1293–1304 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0858-2

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