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The extreme El Niño of 2015–2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event

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Abstract

At the beginning of 2015, as one year earlier in 2014, the scientific community anticipated that El Niño conditions could develop in the tropical Pacific by year-end. Such projections were related to the occurrence of westerly wind bursts during winter–spring of each year that generated strong downwelling Kelvin waves indicative of an emerging El Niño. However, the event’s progression quickly stalled in 2014, but actively continued in 2015, leading to an extreme warm event (comparable to 1997 or 1982). Here, we compare climate evolution during these two years using satellite observations and numerical simulations. We show that during 2014, El Niño development was interrupted mid-year by an exceptionally strong easterly wind burst, whereas during the second year it continued through the summer. Further, we show that the failed 2014 event created favorable conditions for El Niño development during the next year, as it kept ocean heat content recharged and the western Pacific warm pool extended eastward. Subsequently, the winter–spring westerly wind bursts in 2015 were followed by a series of state-dependent westerly bursts as part of a strong positive Bjerknes feedback. Analogue simulations with a coupled GCM wherein we superimpose the observed sequences of westerly and easterly wind bursts support these conclusions, stressing the role of the failed 2014 event in preconditioning the ocean–atmosphere system for the development of an extreme El Niño. In our simulations the probability of an extreme event following early-year westerly wind bursts increases from 14% to nearly 60% due to this preconditioning. Thus, the interplay between westerly and easterly wind bursts shapes El Niño development and diversity.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by funding to A.V.F. from NOAA (Grant NA14OAR4310277) and NASA, including an Earth and Space Sciences Graduate Fellowship to S.H. We also acknowledge computational support from the Yale University Faculty of Arts and Sciences High Performance Computing facility and from the NSF/NCAR Yellowstone Supercomputing Center. We also thank Brian Dobbins for his help in setting up computational environment.

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  1. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA

    Shineng Hu & Alexey V. Fedorov

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  1. Shineng Hu
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  2. Alexey V. Fedorov
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Correspondence to Shineng Hu.

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This paper is a contribution to the special collection on ENSO Diversity. The special collection aims at improving understanding of the origin, evolution, and impacts of ENSO events that differ in amplitude and spatial patterns, in both observational and modeling contexts, and in the current as well as future climate scenarios. This special collection is coordinated by Antonietta Capotondi, Eric Guilyardi, Ben Kirtman and Sang-Wook Yeh.

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Hu, S., Fedorov, A.V. The extreme El Niño of 2015–2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event. Clim Dyn 52, 7339–7357 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3531-2

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