Abstract
Eliminating poverty and improving welfare are the value pursuit of global development. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2020, the path relationship among urban shrinkage, urban–rural development, and residents' welfare growth is empirically tested. The heterogeneity of urban shrinkage affecting residents' welfare are further revealed from multidimensional perspectives such as public financial pressure, attention to ageing cause, provincial capital welfare spillover, land expansion, and geographic differences. The research shows that: (1) Urban shrinkage not only directly inhibit residents' welfare, but also curb the improvement of residents' welfare through widening urban–rural income gap and strengthening urban–rural dual economic structure. (2) The higher the public financial pressure and the attention to the aging cause, the more obvious the inhibitory effect of urban shrinkage on the welfare. The welfare spillover of provincial capital cities show a distinct characteristics of distance attenuation. (3) The inhibitory effect of urban shrinkage on welfare growth is stronger in cities with a higher degree of land expansion. The inhibitory effect of the widening urban–rural income gap on welfare growth presents a V-shaped trend with land expansion. (4) The overall impact of urban shrinkage, urban–rural income gap, and urban–rural dual economic structure on residents' welfare is negative, and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity is significant. The impact of urban shrinkage on residents' welfare in seven cities of Hebei and Shandong province is at the stage of turning from negative to positive during the study period.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Audirac, I. (2014). Shrinking cities in Latin America: An oxymoron? In C. W. N. Harry & W. Richardson (Eds.), Shrinking cities (pp. 28–46). London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203079768
Bernt, M. (2016). The limits of shrinkage: Conceptual pitfalls and alternatives in the discussion of urban population loss. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 40(2), 441–450. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2427.12289
Berry, B. J. (1980). Urbanization and counterurbanization in the United States. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 451(1), 13–20. https://doi.org/10.1177/000271628045100103
Chan, S. M., & Wong, H. (2020). Impact of income, deprivation and social exclusion on subjective poverty: A structural equation model of multidimensional poverty in Hong Kong. Social Indicators Research, 152(3), 971–990. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02476-8
Chen, D., & Ma, Y. (2022). Effect of industrial structure on urban–rural income inequality in China. China Agricultural Economic Review, 14(3), 547–566. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-05-2021-0096
Chen, Z., Poncet, S., & Xiong, R. (2017). Inter-industry relatedness and industrial-policy efficiency: Evidence from China’s export processing zones. Journal of Comparative Economics, 45(4), 809–826. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2016.01.003
Clark, G. L., & Gertler, M. (1983). Migration and capital. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 73(1), 18–34. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1983.tb01393.x
Comanor, W. S., & Leibenstein, H. (1969). Allocative efficiency, X-efficiency and the measurement of welfare losses. Economica, 36(143), 304–309. https://doi.org/10.2307/2551810
Delken, E. (2008). Happiness in shrinking cities in Germany. Journal of Happiness Studies, 9(2), 213–218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-007-9046-5
Deng, T., Wang, D., Yang, Y., & Yang, H. (2019). Shrinking cities in growing China: Did high speed rail further aggravate urban shrinkage? Cities, 86, 210–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.09.017
Du, B., Wang, Y., He, J., Li, W., & Chen, X. (2021). Spatio-temporal characteristics and obstacle factors of the urban-rural integration of China’s shrinking cities in the context of sustainable development. Sustainability, 13(8), 4203. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084203
Green, D., & Loualiche, E. (2021). State and local government employment in the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Public Economics, 193, 104321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104321
Guan, D., He, X., & Hu, X. (2021). Quantitative identification and evolution trend simulation of shrinking cities at the county scale, china. Sustainable Cities and Society, 65, 102611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102611
Gyourko, J., Shen, Y., Wu, J., & Zhang, R. (2022). Land finance in China: analysis and review. China Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101868
Haase, A., Bernt, M., Großmann, K., Mykhnenko, V., & Rink, D. (2016). Varieties of shrinkage in European cities. European Urban and Regional Studies, 23(1), 86–102. https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776413481985
Haase, A., Rink, D., Grossmann, K., Bernt, M., & Mykhnenko, V. (2014). Conceptualizing urban shrinkage. Environment and Planning A, 46(7), 1519–1534. https://doi.org/10.1068/a46269
Haase, D. (2008). Urban ecology of shrinking cities: An unrecognized opportunity? Nature and Culture, 3(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.3167/nc.2008.030101
Hartt, M. (2019). The prevalence of prosperous shrinking cities. Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 109(5), 1651–1670. https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2019.1580132
Hartt, M. (2021). The elasticity of shrinking cities: An analysis of indicators. The Professional Geographer, 73(2), 230–239. https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2021.1871764
Häußermann, H., & Siebel, W. (1988). Die schrumpfende Stadt und die Stadtsoziologie. In J. E. Friedrichs (Ed.), Soziologische stadtforschung (pp. 78–94). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-83617-5_5
Henderson, J. V. (2009). The effect of residential land market regulations on urban welfare. In S. V. Lall, M. Freire, B. Yuen, R. Rajack, & J. Helluin (Eds.), Urban land markets (pp. 25–49). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8862-9_2
Hollander, J. B., & Németh, J. (2011). The bounds of smart decline: A foundational theory for planning shrinking cities. Housing Policy Debate, 21(3), 349–367. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2011.585164
Hospers, G.-J. (2013). Coping with shrinkage in Europe’s cities and towns. Urban Design International, 18, 78–89. https://doi.org/10.1057/udi.2012.29
Hu, Y., Wang, Z., & Deng, T. (2021). Expansion in the shrinking cities: Does place-based policy help to curb urban shrinkage in China? Cities, 113, 103188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2021.103188
Jiang, Y., Chen, Z., & Sun, P. (2022). Urban shrinkage and urban vitality correlation research in the three Northeastern Provinces of China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(17), 10650. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191710650
Kahn, R. L., & Juster, F. T. (2002). Well–being: Concepts and measures. Journal of Social Issues, 58(4), 627–644. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-4560.00281
Lambert, P. J., & Yitzhaki, S. (1995). Equity, equality and welfare. European Economic Review, 39(3–4), 674–682. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(94)00074-A
Langner, M., & Endlicher, W. (2007). Shrinking cities: Effects on urban ecology and challenges for urban development. Peter Lang.
Li, H., & Mykhnenko, V. (2018). Urban shrinkage with Chinese characteristics. The Geographical Journal, 184(4), 398–412. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.1226
Liu, X., Wang, X., & Dong, T. (2022). Impacts of urban shrinkage on haze pollution-evidence from China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3952442
Ma, Z., Li, C., & Zhang, J. (2020). Understanding urban shrinkage from a regional perspective: Case study of Northeast China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 146(4), 05020025. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000621
Mouratidis, K. (2019). Compact city, urban sprawl, and subjective well-being. Cities, 92, 261–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.04.013
Narayan, D., & Pritchett, L. (1999). Cents and sociability: Household income and social capital in rural Tanzania. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 47(4), 871–897. https://doi.org/10.1086/452436
Newell, P. (2008). CSR and the limits of capital. Development and Change, 39(6), 1063–1078. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7660.2008.00530.x
Niu, K., & Xu, H. (2023). Urban–rural integration and poverty: Different roles of urban–rural integration in reducing rural and urban poverty in China. Social Indicators Research, 165(3), 737–757. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-03042-0
Oswalt, P. (2005). Shrinking cities: International research. In Shrinking cities: International research (pp. 8–12). Kunst-Werke Berlin.
Oswalt, P., & Bundes, Kd. (2005). Shrinking cities: International research. Hatje Cantz.
Qiang, W., Lin, Z., Zhu, P., Wu, K., & Lee, H. F. (2021). Shrinking cities, urban expansion, and air pollution in China: A spatial econometric analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 324, 129308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129308
Reckien, D., & Martinez-Fernandez, C. (2011). Why do cities shrink? European Planning Studies, 19(8), 1375–1397. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2011.593333
Redman, C. L., & Jones, N. S. (2005). The environmental, social, and health dimensions of urban expansion. Population and Environment, 26, 505–520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-005-0010-1
Rink, D. (2009). Wilderness: the nature of urban shrinkage? The debate on urban restructuring and restoration in Eastern Germany. Nature and Culture, 4(3), 275–292. https://doi.org/10.3167/nc.2009.040304
Serour, G. I. (2009). Healthcare workers and the brain drain. International Journal of Gynaecology and Obstetrics, 106(2), 175–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijgo.2009.03.035
Shan, J., Liu, Y., Kong, X., Liu, Y., & Wang, Y. (2020). Identifying city shrinkage in population and city activity in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 146(3), 04020027. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000593
Smart, A., & Smart, J. (2001). Local citizenship: Welfare reform urban/rural status, and exclusion in China. Environment and Planning A, 33(10), 1853–1869. https://doi.org/10.1068/a3454
Tobler, W. R. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46(sup1), 234–240. https://doi.org/10.2307/143141
Wang, C., Ma, Y., Zhang, A., & Hu, M. (2022). Spatio-temporal coordination analysis of urban welfare and tourism development in the Yangtze River Delta region. Systems, 10(6), 222. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10060222
Wang, Z., Cao, C., Chen, J., & Wang, H. (2020). Does land finance contraction accelerate urban shrinkage? A study based on 84 key cities in China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 146(4), 04020038. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000613
Wen, Z., Zhang, K., Du, B., Li, Y., & Li, W. (2007). Case study on the use of genuine progress indicator to measure urban economic welfare in China. Ecological Economics, 63(2–3), 463–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.12.004
Woodhouse, A. (2006). Social capital and economic development in regional Australia: A case study. Journal of Rural Studies, 22(1), 83–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2005.07.003
Xiangfeng, M., & Ying, L. (2022). Shrinking cities in China: Evidence from the latest two population censuses 2010–2020. Environment and Planning A Economy and Space. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X221076499
Xu, X., Shi, S., & Huang, Q. (2014). The Chinese urban-rural dual economic structure model and analysis. Asian Agricultural Research, 6(1), 18–23. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.164327
Yang, Z., & Pan, Y. (2020). Are cities losing their vitality? Exploring human capital in Chinese cities. Habitat International, 96, 102104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2019.102104
Zhang, M., & Deng, Y. (2020). Is the urban shrinkage inhibits the improvement of public service level? Journal of Business Administration Research, 3(3), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.30564/jbar.v3i3.1892
Zhang, M., Zou, X., & Sha, L. (2019a). Social security and sustainable economic growth: Based on the perspective of human capital. Sustainability, 11(3), 662. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030662
Zhang, X., Zhang, Q., Zhang, X., & Gu, R. (2023). Spatial-temporal evolution pattern of multidimensional urban shrinkage in China and its impact on urban form. Applied Geography, 159, 103062. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.103062
Zhang, Y., Fu, Y., Kong, X., & Zhang, F. (2019b). Prefecture-level city shrinkage on the regional dimension in China: Spatiotemporal change and internal relations. Sustainable Cities and Society, 47, 101490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101490
Zheng, H., Wang, X., & Cao, S. (2014). The land finance model jeopardizes China’s sustainable development. Habitat International, 44, 130–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.05.008
Zhong, S., Wang, M., Zhu, Y., Chen, Z., & Huang, X. (2022). Urban expansion and the urban–rural income gap: Empirical evidence from China. Cities, 129, 103831. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103831
Zhou, L., & Zhang, Z. (2021). Ecological well-being performance and influencing factors in China: From the perspective of income inequality. Kybernetes, 52(4), 1269–1293. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-06-2021-0452
Funding
This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72001053), and supported by Guizhou University of Finance and Economics Innovation Exploration Project (No.2022XSXMA04).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Conceptualization: [RD].; data curation: [JZ], [LP].; formal analysis: [SS], [LD]; visualization: [JF].; writing—original draft preparation: [YZ].; writing—review and editing: [YZ], [RD]. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
This manuscript has not been published and is not under consideration for publication elsewhere. We have no conflicts of interest to disclose. All authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Ding, R., Zhu, Y., Shen, S. et al. Does Urban Shrinkage Inhibit Residents' Welfare? From the Perspective of Urban–Rural Development in China. Soc Indic Res 171, 847–876 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-023-03279-3
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-023-03279-3