Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Have greenhouse gas emissions from US energy production peaked? State level evidence from six subsectors

  • Published:
Environment Systems and Decisions Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Analyses of the Environmental Kuznet’s Curve (EKC) hypothesis have largely focused on economy level data with occasional analyses exploring sector level data. This paper exploits a new data set which contains sector level data on greenhouse gas emissions from the US energy sector as well as subsector data from six disjoint subsectors which together comprise the entire energy sector. The data contained in this data set is annual data at the state level from 1990 through 2011. Using differenced data, we specify an econometrically sound EKC model and compare it against a model containing only a linear GDP per capita term. We find that using a subsector level modeling approach, evidence for the EKC hypothesis is virtually nonexistent. Moreover, we find that aggregated subsector level estimates outperform sector-level estimate on in-sample accuracy. These estimated models are then used to forecast emissions for the energy sector. We find evidence that US greenhouse gas emissions from energy production are at or near a peak.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Achen CH (2000) Why lagged dependent variables can suppress the explanatory power of other independent variables. In: Proceedings of the annual meeting of the political methodology section of the American political science association, UCLA, vol 20, pp 07–2000

  • Al-Mulali U, Saboori B, Ozturk I (2015) Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Vietnam. Energy Policy 76:123–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aldy JE (2005) An environmental Kuznets curve analysis of us state-level carbon dioxide emissions. J Environ Dev 14(1):48–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aldy JE (2006) Per capita carbon dioxide emissions: convergence or divergence? Environ Resour Econ 33(4):533–555

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aldy JE (2007) Divergence in state-level per capita carbon dioxide emissions. Land Econ 83(3):353–369

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Apergis N, Christou C, Gupta R (2017) Are there environmental Kuznets curves for us state-level co2 emissions? Renew Sustain Energy Rev 69:551–558

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Auffhammer M, Carson RT (2008) Forecasting the path of china’s co2 emissions using province-level information. J Environ Econ Manag 55(3):229–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auffhammer M, Steinhauser R (2012) Forecasting the path of us co2 emissions using state-level information. Rev Econ Stat 94(1):172–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Azomahou T, Laisney F, Van PN (2006) Economic development and co2 emissions: a nonparametric panel approach. J Public Econ 90(6–7):1347–1363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruvoll A, Medin H (2003) Factors behind the environmental Kuznets curve. a decomposition of the changes in air pollution. Environ Resour Econ 24(1):27–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burnett J, Bergstrom JC (2010) US state-level carbon dioxide emissions: a spatial-temporal econometric approach of the environmental Kuznets curve. Tech. rep

  • Burnett JW (2016) Club convergence and clustering of US energy-related co2 emissions. Resour Energy Econ 46:62–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burnett JW, Bergstrom JC, Dorfman JH (2013a) A spatial panel data approach to estimating us state-level energy emissions. Energy Econ 40:396–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burnett JW, Bergstrom JC, Wetzstein ME (2013b) Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in the US. J Policy Model 35(6):1014–1028

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Canas A, Ferrao P, Conceicao P (2003) A new environmental Kuznets curve? Relationship between direct material input and income per capita: evidence from industrialised countries. Ecol Econ 46(2):217–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caron J, Fally T (2018) Per capita income, consumption patterns, and co2 emissions. Tech. rep., National Bureau of Economic Research

  • Chow GC, Li J (2014) Environmental Kuznets curve: conclusive econometric evidence for co2. Pac Econ Rev 19(1):1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Criado CO, Grether JM (2011) Convergence in per capita co2 emissions: a robust distributional approach. Resour Energy Econ 33(3):637–665

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Criado CO, Valente S, Stengos T (2011) Growth and pollution convergence: theory and evidence. J Environ Econ Manag 62(2):199–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinda S (2004) Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: a survey. Ecol Econ 49(4):431–455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edelenbosch O, Kermeli K, Crijns-Graus W, Worrell E, Bibas R, Fais B, Fujimori S, Kyle P, Sano F, van Vuuren D (2017) Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models. Energy 122:701–710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fankhauser S, Tol RS (2005) On climate change and economic growth. Resour Energy Econ 27(1):1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira MA, Santa-Clara P (2011) Forecasting stock market returns: the sum of the parts is more than the whole. J Financ Econ 100(3):514–537

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fox J, Axsen J, Jaccard M (2017) Picking winners: modelling the costs of technology-specific climate policy in the us passenger vehicle sector. Ecol Econ 137:133–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Friedl B, Getzner M (2003) Determinants of co2 emissions in a small open economy. Ecol Econ 45(1):133–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galeotti M, Lanza A, Pauli F (2006) Reassessing the environmental Kuznets curve for co2 emissions: a robustness exercise. Ecol Econ 57(1):152–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill AR, Viswanathan KK, Hassan S (2018) The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and the environmental problem of the day. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 81:1636–1642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harbaugh WT, Levinson A, Wilson DM (2002) Reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental Kuznets curve. Rev Econ Stat 84(3):541–551

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hüttler W, Schandl H, Weisz H (1998) Are industrial economies on the path of dematerialization? material flow accounts for Austria 1960–1996: indicators and international comparison. In: ConAccount workshop Ecologizing Societal Metabolism, p 23

  • Kagawa J (2002) Health effects of diesel exhaust emissions–a mixture of air pollutants of worldwide concern. Toxicology 181:349–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kampa M, Castanas E (2008) Human health effects of air pollution. Environ Pollut 151(2):362–367

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Konan DE, Chan HL (2010) Greenhouse gas emissions in hawai’i: household and visitor expenditure analysis. Energy Econ 32(1):210–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kunnas J, Myllyntaus T (2007) The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and air pollution in Finland. Scand Econ Hist Rev 55(2):101–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • List JA, Gallet CA (1999) The environmental Kuznets curve: does one size fit all? Ecol Econ 31(3):409–423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maddison D (2006) Environmental Kuznets curves: a spatial econometric approach. J Environ Econ Manag 51(2):218–230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magnani E (2000) The environmental Kuznets curve, environmental protection policy and income distribution. Ecol Econ 32(3):431–443

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marrero GA (2010) Greenhouse gases emissions, growth and the energy mix in Europe. Energy Econ 32(6):1356–1363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mazzanti M, Montini A, Zoboli R (2008) Environmental Kuznets curves for air pollutant emissions in italy: evidence from environmental accounts (namea) panel data. Econ Syst Res 20(3):277–301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Millimet DL, List JA, Stengos T (2003) The environmental Kuznets curve: real progress or misspecified models? Rev Econ Stat 85(4):1038–1047

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ordás Criado C (2008) Temporal and spatial homogeneity in air pollutants panel EKC estimations. Environ Resour Econ 40(2):265–283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ravishankara A, Daniel JS, Portmann RW (2009) Nitrous oxide (n2o): the dominant ozone-depleting substance emitted in the 21st century. Science 326(5949):123–125

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ringel M, Laidi R, Djenouri D (2019) Multiple benefits through smart home energy management solutions–a simulation-based case study of a single-family-house in Algeria and Germany. Energies 12(8):1537

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rupasingha A, Goetz SJ, Debertin DL, Pagoulatos A (2004) The environmental Kuznets curve for US counties: a spatial econometric analysis with extensions. Pap Reg Sci 83(2):407–424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Selden TM, Song D (1994) Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions? J Environ Econ Manag 27(2):147–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shittu WO, Musibau H, Hassan S (2018) Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia: the interactive roles of deforestation and urbanisation. Int J Green Econ 12(3–4):272–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soytas U, Sari R (2009) Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: challenges faced by an EU candidate member. Ecol Econ 68(6):1667–1675

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soytas U, Sari R, Ewing BT (2007) Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States. Ecol Econ 62(3–4):482–489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern DI (2004) The rise and fall of the environmental Kuznets curve. World Dev 32(8):1419–1439

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern DI (2017) The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years. J Bioecon 19(1):7–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern DI, Common MS (2001) Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur? J Environ Econ Manag 41(2):162–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suri V, Chapman D (1998) Economic growth, trade and energy: implications for the environmental Kuznets curve. Ecol Econ 25(2):195–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RS, Pacala SW, Socolow R (2006) Understanding long-term energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the USA

  • United States Energy Information Administration (2019) State energy data system (seds): 1960–2017 (complete). https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds-data-complete.php?sid=US

  • United States Environmental Protection Agency (2019) Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks-1990-2017. Accessed July 17 2019

  • United States National Climate Data Center (2019) Heating and cooling degree data. http://www.ncdc.noaa.org. Accessed Aug 14 2019

  • West JJ, Smith SJ, Silva RA, Naik V, Zhang Y, Adelman Z, Fry MM, Anenberg S, Horowitz LW, Lamarque JF (2013) Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health. Nat Clim Change 3(10):885

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • WRI CAIT Climate Data Explorer (2014) Climate analysis indicators tool: Wri’s climate data explorer. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. http://cait.wri.org. Accessed Apr 2 2019

  • Yang C, McCollum D, McCarthy R, Leighty W (2009) Meeting an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050: a case study in California. Transp Res D 14(3):147–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yates DN, Strzepek KM (1998) An assessment of integrated climate change impacts on the agricultural economy of Egypt. Clim Change 38(3):261–287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou Y, Gurney KR (2011) Spatial relationships of sector-specific fossil fuel co2 emissions in the United States. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 25(3):3002

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zoundi Z (2017) Co2 emissions, renewable energy and the environmental Kuznets curve, a panel cointegration approach. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 72:1067–1075

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Resource Economics and Management, West Virginia University, Morgantown, USA

    Michael Cary

Authors
  1. Michael Cary
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Michael Cary.

Appendix

Appendix

1.1 Regression tables

See Tables 4 and 5.

Table 4 Estimation results for the EKC model
Full size table
Table 5 Estimation results for the linear GDP model
Full size table

1.2 Code and data source availability

The python script and csv files containing data from WRI CAIT Climate Data Explorer (2014) are available online at:

https://github.com/cat-astrophic/energy_subsector_emissions

Please cite the data source if using the data used in this paper, but feel free to use, edit, and redistribute any scripts related to this project freely!

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cary, M. Have greenhouse gas emissions from US energy production peaked? State level evidence from six subsectors. Environ Syst Decis 40, 125–134 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-019-09754-y

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-019-09754-y

Keywords

JEL classification

Search

Navigation