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“State ineffectiveness in deterring organized crime style homicide in Mexico: a vicious cycle”

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Abstract

Institutional weaknesses in the criminal justice system (limited court capacity and the increasingly sophisticated armament of splintering drug trafficking organizations) limit the effectivity of Mexican states to deter organized crime style homicide. Court capacity, expressed by increasing sentencing rates in states where the oral court system was institutionalized, remains insufficient against the post-2006 organized crime related homicide epidemic. The illegal arms market, combined with long-standing deficits in firepower between organized crime and municipal police forces, limit the state’s capacity to alter the arms balance toward policing forces. Taken together, limited court capacity and the tactical imbalance of weapons held by drug trafficking organizations create a vicious cycle which continually perpetuates state ineffectiveness to deter and punish organized crime style homicide.

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Notes

  1. An estimated 87% firearms recovered and traced–purchased between 12/1/06 and 11/30/10 with a Mexico recovery (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco & Firearms [ATF]) were captured in the hands of Los Zetas, 45%; the Gulf cartel, 23%, Beltran Leyva, 11%, and Sinaloa cartels, 8% ([83]:37).

  2. The Chihuahua judicial oral courts reported 2017–2018 statistics in a novel way (August 2017–July 2018) at 11 months with (n = 185) intentional homicide sentences. This absolute number is nearly identical to Jan-Dec 2016 (n = 182) sentences and thus does not demonstrate a marked increase or decrease from that year (Informe Chihuahua [37], Agosto 2017-Julio 2018:59).

  3. Extradition figures increased under Felipe Calderón (2006–2012): (2006-n = 63, 2007-n = 83, 2008-n = 95, 2010-n = 94, 2011-n = 93, 2012-n = 115); then decreased, slightly increasing and decreasing again under Peña Nieto (2012–2018) (2013-n = 54, 2014-n = 66, 2015-n = 55, 2016-n = 82, 2017- n = 62, 2018-n = 51 (by 6/30/18); and increasing again under AMLO (2019–2024) (n = 93, 2019) (PGR Informes 2013–2018).

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  1. International Studies Department, The Ohio State University, 33 Townshend Hall, 1881 Neil Ave, Columbus, OH, 43221, USA

    Sara Schatz & Sidney Tobias

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Schatz, S., Tobias, S. “State ineffectiveness in deterring organized crime style homicide in Mexico: a vicious cycle”. Crime Law Soc Change 76, 233–252 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611-021-09946-1

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