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Climate change and risk of arboviral diseases in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

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Abstract

Arboviral diseases are a theme of high interest in the field of public and collective health worldwide. Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya, in particular, have shown significant expansion in terms of morbidity and mortality in different portions of the ecumene. These diseases are of great interest in geographic studies due to the characteristics of their vector (Aedes aegypti), adapted to the environmental and unequal context of the urbanization process. Given this background, this study assesses the relationship between global climate change and the risk of arboviral diseases for the state of Rio de Janeiro. To this end, the characteristics of future climate susceptibility to vector proliferation in the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) were assessed using two models: Eta HadGEM2-ES and Eta MIROC5, as well as the vulnerability conditions that favor the spread of arboviruses. The results indicate that the tendency of thermal and hygrometric elevation, in association with vulnerability, may have repercussions on the intensification and spatial expansion of the risk of arboviral diseases in the state of Rio de Janeiro, since there is a spatial and temporal expansion of the optimal environmental conditions for the development of the vector.

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Data availability

Arbovirus data available at DATASUS (http://www2.datasus.gov.br/DATASUS/index.php), database sustained by Ministry of Health of Brazil and climate modeling data available by National Institute for Space Research (INPE). All data used are in public domain.

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Acknowledgements

This study was financially supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and the Research Support Foundation of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ). The authors would also like to thank the Institute for Space Research (INPE) for making climate model data available.

The authors would like to thank the Academic Publishing Advisory Center (Centro de Assessoria de Publicação Acadêmica, CAPA – < www.capa.ufpr.br >) of the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR) for assistance with English language translation and editing.

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FAPERJ (Grant number: 26010001911/2019) and CNPq (Grant number: 40848320180)

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  1. Geography Institute (IGEOG), State University of Rio de Janeiro—UERJ, São Francisco Xavier Street, 524, 4° floor, office 4006, Block F – Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, 20550-013, Brazil

    Antonio Carlos Oscar Júnior & Francisco de Assis Mendonça

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  1. Antonio Carlos Oscar Júnior
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A. C. Oscar Júniorwas responsible for data analysis and mapping and F. Mendonça was responsible for writing and searching for bibliography.

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Correspondence to Antonio Carlos Oscar Júnior.

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Oscar Júnior, A.C., de Assis Mendonça, F. Climate change and risk of arboviral diseases in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Theor Appl Climatol 145, 731–745 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03663-4

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