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Changes in annual extreme temperature and heat indices in Limpopo province: period 1941–2016

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Abstract

Several climatic indices have been contributed by the scientific community to analyse climate change implications on the environment, society, and economic growth. In this study, daily temperature time series for minimum and maximum temperatures were used to compute 12 extreme climate indices and 2 plant heat resource indices. The indices for the historical period 1941–2016 are computed from the observed temperature records at 10 climate stations within the Limpopo province in South Africa. The time series for the annual heat-related indices were analysed to obtain the climatology and trends for each of the indices per station. In general, statistically significant warming trends, accounting for at least 5 out of the 10 stations for all indices, were observed over the 65-year period. These are except statistically significant cooling trends observed for a few geographically high-lying stations that constitute at least 1 station. The recorded trends in growing degree days and heat stress indices suggest that the majority of stations experienced a gain in the conditions conducive for native plants to grow, while for crops sensitive to temperatures from 25 to 35 °C, the conditions went through a deterioration during the period.

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Acknowledgements

MJM would like to acknowledge the insightful scientific discussions that largely inspired this paper through interaction with Ms. Humbelani Thenga, Mr. Felix Skhosana, and Mr. Floyd Khosa. The authors would also like to acknowledge the ARC-SCW for the provision of meteorological data. We appreciate the comments from editor and two anonymous reviewers, which helped to improve the manuscript.

Funding

MJM and GVM are grateful for the financial support from the CSIR under Mass Change project EEGC049 and P01BCM01. MEM would like to acknowledge the financial support from Agricultural Research Council (ARC) under project 00988.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), P. O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa

    Mohau J. Mateyisi, Malebajoa A. Maoela, Amukelani Maluleke & Graham von Maltitz

  2. Agricultural Research Council, Soil, Climate and Water, Private Bag X79, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa

    Mokhele E. Moeletsi

  3. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Centre, University of Limpopo, Private Bag X1106, Sovenga, 0727, South Africa

    Mokhele E. Moeletsi

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  1. Mohau J. Mateyisi
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  2. Malebajoa A. Maoela
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Contributions

MJM conceived the study, carried out data analysis, and drafted the manuscript. MAM, AM, MEM, and GvM participated in the study design, made intellectual inputs, and read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Mohau J. Mateyisi.

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Mateyisi, M.J., Maoela, M.A., Maluleke, A. et al. Changes in annual extreme temperature and heat indices in Limpopo province: period 1941–2016. Theor Appl Climatol 143, 1327–1339 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03511-x

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