Abstract
Countries located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, such as Iran, with highly dependent economy to agriculture, are more vulnerable to climate change. Six agro-climatic indices have been used, which include the length of the growing season and the frost-free season, dates of the occurrence of the last frost in spring and the first frost in autumn, and annual sum of the growing degree-days (GDD) for two temperature thresholds. To explore variabilities of the indices in the future, outputs of three regional climate models (RCMs) have been analyzed based on two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the South Asia CORDEX region, with the horizontal resolution of 0.44°. Differences between the historical and future simulated agro-climatic indices have been calculated, in which the former is obtained from historical outputs of three models for the period 1961–1990, while the latter is based on future simulations during the period 2061–2090 applying RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Both RCP scenarios indicate an increase in the number of frost-free days (maximum 40 and 70 frost-free days according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively), with higher changes in mountainous regions. Our results indicate that shorter frost days will be more common in northwestern and western Iran in the future period. The highest increase in annual sum of the GDD will be in southern and central Iran, but the lowest increase will be in northwestern Iran.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alidoost F, Zhongbo S, Alfred S (2019) Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: a new copula application. Weather Clim Extremes 26(2019):1–9
Alizadeh-Choobari O (2019) Dynamical downscaling of CSIRO-Mk3.6 seasonal forecasts over Iran with the regional climate model version 4. Int J Climatol 39(7):3313–3322. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6021
Almazroui M, Islam M, Al-Khalaf A, Saeed F (2016) Best convective parameterization scheme within RegCM4 to downscale CMIP5 multi-model data for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain. Theor Appl Climatol 124(3):807–823
Almazroui M, Islam M, Saeed F, Alkhalaf A, Dambul R (2017) Assessing the robustness and uncertainties of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in AR5 Global Climate Models over the Arabian Peninsula. Atmos Res 194(Supplement C):202–213
Carter T (1998) Changes in the thermal growing season in Nordic countries during the past century and prospects for the future. Agric Food SciFinl 7:161–179
Chakraborty A, Seshasai M, Rao S, Dadhwal V (2017) Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969–2005. Theor Appl Climatol 130(1):133–149
Dong M, Jiang Y, Zhang D, Wu Z (2013) Spatiotemporal change in the climatic growing season in Northeast China during 1960–2009. Theor Appl Climatol 111(3):693–701
Easterling D (2002) Recent changes in frost days and the frost-free season in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(9):1327–1332
Feng S, Hu Q (2004) Changes in agro-meteorological indicators in the contiguous United States: 1951–2000. Theor Appl Climatol 78(4):247–264
Filahi S, Tramblay Y, Mouhir L, Diaconescu E (2017) Projected changes in temperature and precipitation indices in Morocco from high-resolution regional climate models. Int J Climatol 37:4846–4863. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5127
Giorgi F, Hewitson B, Christensen J, et al (2001) Regional Climate Information-Evaluation and Projections
Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar G (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. World Meteorological Organization Bulletin, vol 58. No 3
Gohari A, Eslamian S, Abedi-Koupaei J, Massah Bavani A, Wang D, Madani K (2013) Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. Sci Total Environ 442:405–419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.10.029
Graczyk D, Kundzewicz Z (2016) Changes of temperature-related agroclimatic indices in Poland. Theor Appl Climatol 124(1):401–410
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Jones C, Willén U, Ullerstigand A, Hansson U (2004) The Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model Part I: model climatology and performance for the present climate over Europe. Ambio 33(4-5):199–210
Kadioglu M, Şaylan L (2001) Trends of growing degree-days in Turkey. Water Air Soil Pollut 126(1):83–96
Lelieveld J, Proestos Y, Hadjinicolaou P, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Zittis E (2016) Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Clim Chang 137(1):245–260
Linderholm H (2006) Growing season changes in the last century. Agric For Meteorol 137(1):1–14
Liuzzo L, Bono E, Sammartano V, Freni G (2017) Long-term temperature changes in Sicily, Southern Italy. Atmos Res 198(Supplement C):44–55
Martynov A, Laprise R, Sushama L, Winger K, Šeparović L, Dugas B (2013) Reanalysis-driven climate simulation over CORDEX North America domain using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: model performance evaluation. Clim Dyn 41(11):2973–3005
Menzel A, Fabian P (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397(6721):659–659
Oh S, Suh M, Cha D (2013) Impact of lateral boundary conditions on precipitation and temperature extremes over South Korea in the CORDEX regional climate simulation using RegCM4. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 49(4):497–509
Pal J, Giorgi F, Bi X et al (2007) Regional climate modeling for the developing world: the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88(9):1395–1410. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-88-9-1395
Quaye F, Nadolnyak D, Hartarska V (2018) Climate change impacts on farmland values in the Southeast United States. Sustainability 10:3426. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103426
Rahimi M, Hajjam S, Khalili A, Kamali G, Stigter C (2007) Risk analysis of first and last frost occurrences in the Central Alborz region, Iran. Int J Climatol 27(3):349–356
Rahimzadeh F, Asgari A, Fattahi E (2009) Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int J Climatol 29(3):329–343
Reidsma P, Ewert A, Lansink O, Leemans R (2010) Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: the importance of farm level responses. Eur J Agron 32(1):91–102
Ruml M, Vuković A, Vujadinović M, Djurdjević V, Ranković-Vasić Z, Atanacković Z, Sivčev B, Marković N, Matijašević S, Petrović N (2012) On the use of regional climate models: implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. Agric For Meteorol 158(Supplement C):53–62
Ruosteenoja K, Räisänen J, Pirinen P (2011) Projected changes in thermal seasons and the growing season in Finland. Int J Climatol 31(10):1473–1487
Ruosteenoja K, Räisänen J, Venäläinen A, Kämäräinen M (2016) Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output. Int J Climatol 36(8):3039–3055
Russelle M, Wilhelm W, Olson R, Power J (1984) Growth analysis based on degree days1. Crop Sci 24(1):28–32
Sang Y (2012) Spatial and temporal variability of daily temperature in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Atmos Res 112(Supplement C):12–24
Sharif M (2015) Analysis of projected temperature changes over Saudi Arabia in the twenty-first century. Arab J Geosci 8(10):8795–8809
Spinoni J, Vogt J, Barbosa P (2015) European degree-day climatologies and trends for the period 1951–2011. Int J Climatol 35(1):25–36
Thivierge M, Jégo G, Bélanger G, Chantigny M, Rotz C, Charbonneau E, Baron V, Qian B (2017) Projected impact of future climate conditions on the agronomic and environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms. Agric Syst 157(Supplement C):241–257
Vincent L, Peterson C, Barros V et al (2005) Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America 1960–2000. J Clim 18(23):5011–5023
Vondou D, Haensler A (2017) Evaluation of simulations with the regional climate model REMO over Central Africa and the effect of increased spatial resolution. Int J Climatol 37:741–760
Walther A, Linderholm H (2006) A comparison of growing season indices for the Greater Baltic Area. Int J Biometeorol 51(2):107–118
White M, Running S, Thornton P (1999) the impact of growing-season length variability on carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration over 88 years in the eastern US deciduous forest. Int J Biometeorol 42(3):139–145
Xia J, Yan Z, Jia G, Zeng H, Jones P, Zhou W, Zhang A (2015) Projections of the advance in the start of the growing season during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations. Adv Atmos Sci 32(6):831–838
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kamyar, A., Yazdanpanah, H., Movahedi, S. et al. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-climatic indices in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 1359–1367 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03385-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03385-z