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Future changes in precipitation extremes during northeast monsoon over south peninsular India

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Abstract

It is well recognized that the global climate has been warming and it can have adverse regional impacts in the future. Besides producing changes in mean climate, global warming can also substantially alters the weather and climate extremes. Considering the impact of weather extremes on agriculture as well as water resource management in an agrarian country like India, present study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes in northeast monsoon season (October–November–December) over south peninsular India based on statistically downscaled high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) datasets. This NEX-GDDP dataset simulates the mean rainfall reasonably well. There may be an increase in precipitation in near (5% under RCP 4.5 and 11% under RCP 8.5) and far future (21% and 38% under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively). Future climate projections indicate that both the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes in most parts of the south peninsular India may increase under both the warming scenarios during northeast monsoon season.

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Acknowledgments

The NEX-GDDP dataset has been prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange, and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). The authors sincerely thank them for providing this statistically downscaled high-resolution data. The authors also acknowledge India Meteorological Department for providing the daily high-resolution precipitation data. The first author, Dr. K. Koteswara Rao, is thankful to the Department of Science and Technology (DST)-Scientific and Engineering Research Board (SERB), Govt. of India for sponsoring this work under the DST-NPDF fellowship scheme. We also thank to the Director, IITM, for his support.

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Correspondence to K. Koteswara Rao.

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Rao, K.K., Kulkarni, A., Patwardhan, S. et al. Future changes in precipitation extremes during northeast monsoon over south peninsular India. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 205–217 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03308-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03308-y

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