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GCM selection and temperature projection of Nigeria under different RCPs of the CMIP5 GCMS

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Abstract

The possible future changes in temperature over Nigeria were projected in this study. Using Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature as the reference data, gain ratio (GR), entropy gain (EG), and symmetrical uncertainty (SU) feature selection methods and a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach were used in selecting the most suitable GCMs for Nigeria from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs). The biases in selected GCMs were corrected using power transformation (PT) method. Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) were generated for the selected GCMs for the different temperature classes’ maximum, average, and minimum for all RCPs. The MMEs were used for the projection of temperatures over the country during 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. The GCMs HadGEM2-ES, CESM1-CAM5, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and MRI-CGCM3 were the best performing in replicating temperature characteristics of the observed temperature in Nigeria. The MME mean projections of bias-corrected (BC) GCMs using PT revealed that there will be an increase in temperature of 4.0 °C at the semi-arid and 5.0 °C at the arid regions during dry and wet seasons respectively under RCP 4.5. In the same regions, the maximum temperature is expected to increase up to 5.5 °C under RCP 8.5 during 2070–2099 in the dry season. In the wet season, temperatures are expected to be higher under RCP 8.5, with an increase of 0.0–4.0 °C in the southern region and 3.0–6.9 °C in the northern region.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (UK) for making the gridded CRU temperature data available, to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) for making the GCM simulation data available, and to diva-gis.org for making the elevation map used in this study available.

Funding

This research has been supported by the National Research Foundation of the Republic of Korea (Grant no. NRF2016R1D1A1B04931844).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul, 01811, Republic of Korea

    Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Eun-Sung Chung

  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Federal University Dutse, Dutse, P.M.B 7156, Nigeria

    Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

  3. Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia

    Shamsuddin Shahid & Noraliani Alias

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Shiru, M.S., Chung, ES., Shahid, S. et al. GCM selection and temperature projection of Nigeria under different RCPs of the CMIP5 GCMS. Theor Appl Climatol 141, 1611–1627 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03274-5

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