Abstract
This dataset improves on previous products in its spatial resolution, spatial extent and time period covering the Black Sea catchment (BSC). The spatial prediction of daily datasets was performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) methodology. The results show that for minimum and maximum temperature, the model with the elevation and distance to shorelines predictors is the best fitted model. The best fitted model for precipitation is obtained with the elevation predictor. The downscaling of climate change scenarios is based on HIRHAM regional climate model (RCM) from the European project PRUDENCE. The downscaling was made by means of a modified delta method. The modified delta method applied in this study explicitly considers the spatial differences of the climate scenarios and the monthly variability. For each grid point, the delta method is applied according to the rank order of values in the monthly distribution of the closest RCM grid point. The results show that the delta method gives satisfying results when considering the monthly variability. Impacts on minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, number of days without precipitation, dry spell length, number and length of days above maximum temperature above 30∘C, under conditions of climate change are also examined for this region.
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17 July 2020
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the European Commission Seventh Framework Program that funded the enviroGRIDS project (Grant agreement no. 227640). The computations were performed at University of Geneva on the Baobab cluster. We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES and the data providers in the ECA & D project. The APHROPR dataset is archived and provided under the framework of the Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS,DIASP), through the National Key Technology, Marine Earth Observation Exploration System. RCM data have been provided through the PRUDENCE data archive, funded by the EU through contract EVK2-CT2001-00132.
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Gago-Silva, A., Lehmann, A. & Goyette, S. Daily gridded temperature and precipitation datasets over the Black Sea catchment: 1961–1990 and climate change scenarios for 2071–2100. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 805–830 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03147-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03147-x