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Analyzing precipitation and temperature trends of Kanha and Satpura Tiger Reserve, Central India

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Abstract

The present study analyzed precipitation and temperature trends of 45 years (1971–2015) over two protected areas (Kanha Tiger Reserve representing Sal forest and Satpura Tiger Reserve representing Teak forest) in Central India. The specific trends (decadal, annual, and seasonal) are calculated from various available data sources (IMD, REMO, and Station) which are at different horizontal resolutions. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test statistic and Sen’s estimate methods are used to detect the presence and quantum of a trend. The results indicate significant decrease in post-monsoon and winter precipitation and an increasing significant temperature trend (Tmean, Tmax, Tmin) at seasonal, annual, and decadal scale, with a maximum increase during post-monsoon. Also, the last decade (2001–2010) was warmer than the previous three decades. The presence of break points and structural changes in climatic variables are analyzed using OLS-CUSUM and MOSUM tests available in “strucchange” package in R. A structural change in precipitation was observed only in REMO dataset over Satpura Tiger Reserve, whereas significant structural change in temperature was observed in REMO dataset over both the regions. These findings are useful for assessing precipitation and temperature trends in protected areas. In particular, it can aid in understanding the impact of climate change on forest/species. On comparative analysis among different data sources at varying resolutions, the study recommends the use of finer resolution datasets for regional/micro-scale studies for formulating and planning effective adaptation strategies.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to express their heartfelt thanks to the Director, IIFM, Bhopal for facilitating necessary infrastructure and facilities. The support received from the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, GOI and Madhya Pradesh Forest Department is duly acknowledged. The authors are thankful to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments in improving the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Chairperson, Centre for Climate Change Studies, Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal, India

    Rinku Moni Devi, Maneesh Kumar Patasaraiya, Bhaskar Sinha & Jigyasa Bisaria

  2. School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

    A.P. Dimri

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  1. Rinku Moni Devi
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  2. Maneesh Kumar Patasaraiya
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  3. Bhaskar Sinha
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  4. Jigyasa Bisaria
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  5. A.P. Dimri
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Correspondence to Bhaskar Sinha.

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Devi, R.M., Patasaraiya, M.K., Sinha, B. et al. Analyzing precipitation and temperature trends of Kanha and Satpura Tiger Reserve, Central India. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 1435–1450 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03134-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03134-2

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