Abstract
All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) shows a declining trend since 1953. Hence, the period 1953–2015 is considered for this study. The deviations of the summer monsoon (SM) rainfall in the recent period (1983–2015) from that of the previous period (1953–1982) have been evaluated for individual months and whole SM season using India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall. The changes in the SM rainfall in the recent 3 decades with respect to the changes in the thermal, moisture, and circulation patterns over India and neighborhood are studied. The relationships between the winds over the Somali jet core region and the SM rainfall over India are quantified. Enhancement of rainfall activity is seen over a few subdivisions mainly Jammu & Kashmir and parts of Northwest India where the western disturbance interaction and the meridional wind component of low level jet (LLJ) have been pronounced. The decline in rainfall over major part of India in the recent 33 years is associated with weakened low level circulation, decrease in the relative humidity (RH) over the Bay of Bengal, less frequency of cyclonic disturbances formed in the Bay of Bengal, decrease in the genesis potential parameter as well as north-south sea level pressure gradient between Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The inconsistency of warming rates between Northern India and Southern India and its adjoining areas in the layer, 600–200 hPa induces reduced SM circulation. Further, the Walker and Hadley circulations specify a decline in the convective activity in SM season over the Indian mainland.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abish B, Joseph PV, Johannessen OM (2013) Weakening trend of the tropical easterly jet stream of the boreal summer monsoon season 1950–2009. J Clim 26:9408–9414. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00440.1
Ananthakrishnan R (1977) Some aspects of the monsoon circulation and monsoon rainfall. Pure Appl Geophys 115:1209–1249
Behera SK, Ratnam JV (2018) Quasi-asymmetric response of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall to opposite phases of the IOD. Sci Rep 8:123. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-18396-6
Bhaskar DVR, Naidu CV, Srinivasa BRR (2001) Trends and fluctuations of the cyclonic systems over North Indian Ocean. Mausam 52:37–46
Cadet D, Desbois M (1979) Low-level air flow over the western Indian Ocean as seen from METEOSAT. Nature 278:538–540
Cadet D, Reverdin G (1981) Water vapour transport over the Indian Ocean during summer 1975. Tellus 33:476–487
Chung CE, Ramanathan V (2006) Weakening of north Indian SST gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel. J Clim 19:2036–2045
Das PK (2002) The monsoons. National Book Trust of India, New Delhi
Dash SK, Jenamani RK, Kalsi SR, Panda SK (2007) Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Clim Chang 85:299–232
Elsner JB, Kossin JP, Jagger TH (2008) The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature 455:92–95
Findlater J (1969) A major low level air current near the Indian Ocean during the northern summer. Q J R Meteorol Soc 95:362–380
Flohn H (1957) Large-scale aspects of the summer monsoon in South and East Asia. J Meteorol Soc Japan Ser.II 35A(O):180–186. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1923.35A.0_180
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462
Goswami BN, Chakravorty S (2017) Dynamics of the Indian summer monsoon climate. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.613
Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) ENSO control on the south Asian monsoon through the length of the rainy season. Geophys Res Lett 32(18). https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023216
Goswami BN, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, Madhusoodanan MS, Xavier PK (2006) Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314(5804):1442–1445. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132027
Gray WM (1975) Tropical cyclone genesis. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, 1975. Atmospheric Science Paper No. 234
IMD (2015) Monsoon 2014 – a report: IMD Met. Monograph, ESSO Document No: SSO/IMD/ SYNOPTIC MET/01(2015)/17
Jin Q, Wang C (2017) A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002. Nat Clim Chang 7:587–594
Joseph PV, Raman PL (1966) Existence of low-level westerly jet-stream over peninsular India during July. Indian J Meteorol Hydrol Geophys 17:407–410
Joseph PV, Simon A (2005) Weakening trend of the southwest monsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to the present. Curr Sci 89(4):687–694
Kotal SD, Kundu PK, Bhowmik SKR (2009) Analysis of cyclogenesis parameter for developing and nondeveloping low-pressure systems over the Indian Sea. Nat Hazards 50:389–402
Krishnan R, Sabin TP, Ayantika DC, Kitoh A, Sugi M, Murakami H, Turner AG, Slingo JM, Rajendran K (2013) Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further? Clim Dyn 40:187–211
Krishnan R, Sabin TP, Vellore R, Mujumdar M, Sanjay J, Goswami BN (2015) Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world. Clim Dyn 47:1007–1027
Levitus S, Antonov J, Boyer T (2005) Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003. Geophys Res Lett 32:L02604. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021592
Lindzen R, Nigam S (1987) On the role of sea surface temperature gradients in forcing low-level winds and convergence in the tropics. J Atmos Sci 44:2418–2436
Mishra AK, Gnanaseelan C, Seetaramayya P (2004) A study of rainfall along the west coast of India in relation to low level jet and air–sea interactions over the Arabian Sea. Curr Sci 87(4):475–485
Mooley DA, Shukla J (1987) Variability and forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Monsoon Meteorology. Oxford University Press, pp. 26-59
Muni KK (2009) Intensifying tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon–global warming. Glob Planet Chang 65(1–2):12–16
Naidu CV, Durgalakshmi K, Muni KK, Ramalingeswararao S, Satyanarayana GC, Lakshminarayana P, Malleswararao L (2009) Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era? J Geophys Res 114(D24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011288
Naidu CV, Muni KK, Ramalingeswararao S, Bhanukumar OSRU, Durgalakshmi K, Ramakrishna SSVS (2011a) Variations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall induce the weakening of easterly jet stream in the warming environment? Glob Planet Chang 75:21–30
Naidu CV, Durgalakshmi K, Satyanarayana GC, Malleswararao L, Ramakrishna SSVS, Mohan JR, Nagaratna K (2011b) An observational evidence of climate change during global warming era? Glob Planet Chang 79:11–19
Naidu CV, Satyanarayana GC, Malleswararao L, Durgalakshmi K, Raju AD, Kumar PV, Mounika GJ (2015a) Anomalous behavior of Indian summer monsoon in the warming environment. Earth-Sci Rev 150:243–255
Naidu CV, Raju AD, Satyanarayana GC, Kumar PV, Chiranjeevi G, Suchitra P (2015b) An observational evidence of decrease in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the recent three decades of global warming era. Glob Planet Chang 127:91–102
Naidu CV, Raju AD, Kumar PV, Satyanarayana GC (2017) Perceptible changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to Indian Monsoon Index. Glob Planet Chang 157:83–92
Pai DS, Bhan SC (2014) Monsoon report 2014. IMD Met. Monograph, ESSO Document No: SSO/IMD/SYNOPTIC MET/01 (2015)/17, pp 34
Pai DS, Sridhar L, Rajeevan M, Sreejith OP, Satbhai NS, Mukhopadhyay B (2014) Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.250 x 0.250) long period (1901–2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region. Mausam 65(1):1–18
Pattnayak KC, Panda SK, Saraswat V, Dash SK (2016) Relationship between tropospheric temperature and Indian summer monsoon rainfall as simulated by RegCM3. Clim Dyn 46:3149–3162
Prathipati VK, Naidu CV, Prasanna K (2019) Inconsistency in the frequency of rainfall events in the Indian summer monsoon season. Int J Climatol 39:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6113
Rajendran K, Kitoh A, Srinivasan J, Mizuta R, Krishnan R (2012) Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate. Theoret Appl Climatol 110(4):555–571
Ramamurthy K (1969) Monsoon of India: some aspects of the break in the Indian southwest monsoon during July and August. Forecasting Manual 1-57 No. IV 18.3; India Met Dept., Pune, India
Rao BRS, Rao DVB, Rao VB (2004) Decreasing trend in the strength of tropical easterly jet during the Asian summer monsoon season and the number of tropical cyclonic systems over Bay of Bengal. Geophys Res Lett 31(14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019817
Rao VB, Ferreira CC, Franchito SH, Ramakrishna SSVS (2008) In a changing climate weakening tropical easterly jet induces more violent tropical storms over the North Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 35(15). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034729
Rao VB, Arai E, Franchito SH, Shimabukuro YE, Ramakrishna SSVS, Naidu CV (2011) The Thar, Rajputana desert unprecedented rainfall in 2006 and 2010: effect of climate change? Geofis Int 50(4):363–370
Rao SA, Dhakate AR, Saha SK, Mahapatra S, Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Sahu SK (2012) Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently? Clim Chang 110:709–719. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0121-x
Ratna SB, Cherchi A, Joseph PV, Behera SK, Abish B, Masina S (2016) Moisture variability over the indo-Pacific region and its influence on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 46:949–965. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2624-z
Roxy M, Ritika K, Terray P, Murtugudde R, Ashok K, Goswami BN (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat Commun 6:7423
Sandeep S, Ajayamohan RS (2015) Poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon low level jet stream under global warming. Clim Dyn 45:337–351
Subbaramayya I, Naidu CV (1992) Spatial variations and trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall. Int J Climatol 12:597–609
Trenberth KE (2018) Climate change caused by human activities is happening and it already has major consequences. J Energy Nat Resour Law:1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/02646811.2018.1450895
Vishnu S, Francis PA, Shenoi SSC, Ramakrishna SSVS (2016) On the decreasing trend of the number of monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal. Environ Res Lett 11(1):014011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014011
Webster PJ, Palmer T, Yanai M, Tomas R, Magana V, Shukla YA (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103:14451–14510
Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, 2nd edn. Elsevier, New York
Wilson SS, Joseph PV, Kumar KM, Johannessen OM (2018) Interannual and long term variability of low level jet stream of the Asian summer monsoon. Tellus A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 70(1):1445380. https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2018.1445380
WMO-No.1212 (2018) WMO statement on the state of the Global Climate in 2017
Acknowledgments
The authors P. Vinay Kumar and K. Prasanna wish to thank the DST, Government of India for providing research fellowships (DST/INSPIRE Fellowship/IF160113, IF160117) and for providing the computer facility under FIST programme to our department. The authors are thankful to the GrADS team for developing plotting software and IMD, IITM, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis team, and data.gov.in website for providing data.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kumar, P.V., Naidu, C.V. & Prasanna, K. Recent unprecedented weakening of Indian summer monsoon in warming environment. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 467–486 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03087-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03087-1