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An evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models in simulating future rainfall and extreme events over Mzingwane catchment, Zimbabwe

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Abstract

The study evaluated CORDEX RCMs’ ability to project future rainfall and extreme events in the Mzingwane catchment using an ensemble average of three RCMs (RCA4, REMO2009 and CRCM5). Model validation employed the statistical mean and Pearson correlation, while trends in projected rainfall and number of rainy days were computed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the magnitudes of trends were determined by Sen’s slope estimator. Temporal and spatial distribution of future extreme dryness and wetness was established by using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The results show that RCMs adequately represented annual and inter-annual rainfall variability and the ensemble average outperformed individual models. Trend results for the projected rainfall suggest a significant decreasing trend in future rainfall (2016–2100) for all stations at p < 0.05. In addition, a general decreasing trend in the number of rainy days is projected for future climate, although the significance and magnitude varied with station location. Model results suggest an increased occurrence of future extreme events, particularly towards the end of the century. The findings are important for developing proactive sustainable strategies for future climate change adaption and mitigation.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to CORDEX-AFRICA under the coordination of Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG) for the provision of downscaled regional climate data for the African continent which was used to predict future rainfall and extreme events in Mzingwane catchment. We would also like to acknowledge the Department of Meteorological Services in Zimbabwe for the observed monthly and daily climate data for the period between 1950 and 2015.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    S. Sibanda, S. W. Grab & F. Ahmed

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  1. S. Sibanda
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  2. S. W. Grab
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  3. F. Ahmed
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Correspondence to S. Sibanda.

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Sibanda, S., Grab, S.W. & Ahmed, F. An evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models in simulating future rainfall and extreme events over Mzingwane catchment, Zimbabwe. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 91–100 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03074-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03074-6

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