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Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970–2018

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Abstract

Phenology provides intimate insights into ongoing changes in nature and seasonality with respect to humans. In this study, the most complete volunteer observer phenological data set for the territory of Latvia from 1970 to 2018 was evaluated. The data set includes observations of 159 phases of eight taxonomical groups, as well as abiotic phenomena such as the first snow, last spring frost, and agrarian activities. With reducing dimensionality, a hierarchical cluster analysis was used to group the 66 phenological phases of most observations into 7 clusters. The largest changes were observed in the early spring phenological phases of the pioneer species such as the start of flowering of Corylus avellana (hazel), Alnus incana (grey alder) and Populus tremula (aspen), noted as −8 days/decade. The trend of the spring emergence of insects and spring migratory birds also showed a negative tendency. The phenology of crops and agrarian activities has not changed significantly. The trends of the autumn phases were heterogeneous—leaf colouration and fall for some species (Populus tremula) and (Acer platanoides, Norway maple) was recorded on average later; for other species, there was a slightly earlier trend (Betula pendula, silver birch; Tilia cordata, linden). Earlier onset of the spring phases affects the changes in the length of the growing season (for Acer platanoides + 7.7 days/decade; Betula pendula + 3.3 days/decade). Since 1990, it has been common that many phases have begun sooner (particularly spring phases), whilst abiotic autumn phases have been characterised by late years. This study has shown that significant seasonal changes have taken place across the Latvian landscape due to climate change.

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Availability of data and materials (data transparency)

The data are freely available to all interested. The data set is available at https://zenodo.org/repository, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3982086.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to Ivonna Tokere for the digitization of the historical data; Andris Ģērmanis for maintaining the phenological network and for data collection; and all volunteers—citizen-scientists—for the data collection through the decades.

This study was carried out within the framework of the Impact of Climate Change on Phytophenological Phases and Related Risks in the Baltic Region (No. 1.1.1.2/VIAA/2/18/265) ERDF project and the Climate change and sustainable use of natural resources institutional research grant of the University of Latvia (No. AAP2016/B041//ZD2016/AZ03).

Funding

This study was funded by the Impact of Climate Change on Phytophenological Phases and Related Risks in the Baltic Region ERDF project (1.1.1.2/VIAA/2/18/265) and an institutional research grant of the University of Latvia: Climate change and sustainable use of natural resources (No. AAP2016/B041//ZD2016/AZ03).

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  1. Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia

    Gunta Kalvāne & Andis Kalvāns

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  1. Gunta Kalvāne
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  2. Andis Kalvāns
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Correspondence to Gunta Kalvāne.

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Kalvāne, G., Kalvāns, A. Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970–2018. Int J Biometeorol 65, 895–904 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02068-8

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