Abstract
Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China’s ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (− 4 to − 61% RCP 4.5; − 6 to − 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
A report delivered by Xi Jinping at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China suggested that China now face is the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life.
15 individual global climate models are CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3–6-0, CanESM2, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-H, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3 and NorESM1-M.
References
Abegg B (1996) Klimaänderung und Tourismus. Klimafolgenforschung am Beispiel des Wintertourismus in den Schweizer Alpen. Zurich, vdf Zurich
Abegg B, Agrawala S, Crick F, de Montfalcon A (2007) Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: Agrawala S (ed) Climate change in the European Alps. Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management. Paris, OECD, pp 25–60
An HM, Xiao CD, Ding MH (2019) The spatial pattern of ski areas and its driving factors in China: a strategy for healthy development of the ski industry. Sustainability 11(11):3138. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113138
Che T, Li X, Jin R, Armstrong R, Zhang TJ (2008) Snow depth derived from passive microwave remote-sensing data in China. Ann Glaciol 49:145–154. https://doi.org/10.3189/-172756408787814690
Chen RS, Liu JF, Song YX (2014) Precipitation type estimation and validation in China. J Mt Sci-Eng 11(4):917–925. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-012-2625-x
Dai LY, Che T, Ding YJ (2015) Inter-calibrating SMMR, SSM/I and SSMI/S data to improve the consistency of snow-depth products in China. Remote Sens-Basel 7(6):7212–7230. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70607212
Damm A, Greuell W, Landgren O, Prettenthaler F (2017) Impacts of+ 2°C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe. Clim Serv 7:31–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.07.003
Dawson J, Scott D (2007) Climate change vulnerability of the Vermont ski tourism industry (USA). Ann Tourism Res 10:550–572. https://doi.org/10.1080/11745398.2007.9686781
Dawson J, Scott D (2013) Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector. Tour Manag 35:244–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009
Dawson J, Scott D, McBoyle G (2009) Climate change analogue analysis of ski tourism in the northeastern USA. Clim Res 39(1):1–9. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00793
Downward P, Rasciute S (2011) Does sport make you happy? An analysis of the well-being derived from sports participation. Int Rev Appl Econ 25(3):331–348. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2010.511168
Elsasser H, Bürki R (2002) Climate change as a threat to tourism in the Alps. Clim Res 20:253–257. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020253
Elsasser H, Messerli P (2001) The vulnerability of the snow industry in the Swiss Alps. Mt Res Dev 21:335–339. https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2001)021[0335:TVOTSI]2.0.CO;2
Fang Y (2019) Potential effects of climate change on China’s ski resorts and ski demand. Dissertation, Peking University. (In Chinese)
Feng X, Wang CH, Li SJ, Cheng HJ, Wu XL (2013) Multi-time scale simulations with snow melting models based on energy balance theory. J Hohai Univ: Nat Sci 41(1):26–31 1000-1980 (2013) 01-0026-06. (In Chinese)
Fukushima T, Kureha M, Ozaki N, Fujimori Y, Harasawa H (2002) Influences of air temperature change on leisure industries: case study on ski activities. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob 7:173–189. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022803405470
Gao X, Zhang SQ, Ye BS, Gao HK (2011) Recent changes of glacier runoff in the Hexi inland river basin. Adv Water Sci 22(3):344–350. https://doi.org/10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2011.03.019 (In Chinese)
Han CT, Chen RS, Liu JF, Yang Y, Qing WW (2010) A discuss of the separating solid and liquid precipitations. J Glaciol Geocryol 32(2):249–256 (In Chinese)
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90(8):1095–1107. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
Hennessy K, Whetton P, Smith I, Bathols J, Hutchinson M, Sharples J (2003) The impact of climate change on snow conditions in mainland Australia. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale
Hock R (2003) Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. J Hydrol 282(1–4):104–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9
IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, London
König U (1998) Tourism in a warmer world: implications of climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect for the ski industry in the Australian Alps. Dissertation, Univ. Zürich-Irchel Geographisches Institut
Li X (2017) China ski resorts encyclopedia (2016). China Ski-Equipment Net. http://www.skiequipment.com.cn/. Accessed 15 Apr 2017
Liu SY, Ding YJ, Ye BS, Wang NL, Xie ZC (1996) Study on the mass balance of the glacier no. 1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River using degree-day method. In proceedings of the fifth Chinese conference on glaciology and geocryology Vol 1: 197-204. Gansu Culture Press, Lanzhou. (In Chinese)
Liu JF, Yang JP, Chen RS, Yang Y (2006) The simulation of snowmelt runoff model in the Dongkemadi River basin, headwater of the Yangtze River. Acta Geograph Sin 61(11):1149–1159. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2006.11.004 (In Chinese)
Qiao CJ, He XB, Ye BS (2010) Study of the degree-day factors for snow and ice on the Dongkemadi glacier, Tanggula range. J Glaciol Geocryol 32(2):257–264 (In Chinese)
Rutty M, Scott D, Johnson P, Jover E, Pons M, Steiger R (2015) Behavioral adaptation of skiers to climatic variability and change in Ontario, Canada. J Outdo Recreat Tour 11:13–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2015.07.002
Scott D, McBoyle G, Mills B (2003) Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation. Clim Res 23:171–181. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr023171
Scott D, McBoyle G, Minogue A (2007) Climate change and Quebec’s ski industry. Global Environ Chang 17(2):181–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.004
Scott D, Dawson J, Jones B (2008) Climate change vulnerability of the US northeast winter recreation–tourism sector. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob 13:577–596. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9136-z
Scott D, Steiger R, Rutty M, Johnson P (2015) The future of the Olympic Winter Games in an era of climate change. Curr Issues Tour 18:913–930. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2014.887664
Scott D, Steiger R, Rutty M, Fang Y (2018) The changing geography of the Winter Olympic and Paralympic GamABEFes in a warmer world. Curr Issues Tour:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1436161
Scott D, Steiger R, Dannevig H, Aall C (2019a) Climate change and the future of the Norwegian alpine ski industry. Curr Issues Tour:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1608919
Scott D, Steiger R, Rutty M, Pons M, Johnson P (2019b) The differential futures of ski tourism in Ontario (Canada) under climate change: the limits of snowmaking adaptation. Curr Issues Tour:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2017.1401984
Semenov MA, Barrow EM (1997) Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Clim Chang 35(4):397–414. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005342632279
Semenov MA, Stratonovitch P (2010) Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Clim Res 41:1–14. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00836
Singh P, Kumar N, Arora M (2000) Degree–day factors for snow and ice for Dokriani glacier, Garhwal Himalayas. J Hydrol 235(1–2):1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00249-3
Steiger R (2010) The impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking requirements in Tyrol, Austria. Clim Res 43:251–262. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00941
Steiger R (2011) The impact of snow scarcity on ski tourism. An analysis of the record warm season 2006/07 in Tyrol (Austria). Tour Rev 66(3):4–15. https://doi.org/10.1108/16605371111175285
Steiger R (2012) Scenarios for skiing tourism in Austria: integrating demographics with an analysis of climate change. J Sustain Tour 20:867–882. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2012.680464
Steiger R, Abegg B (2013) The sensitivity of Austrian ski areas to climate change. Tour Plan Dev 10:480-493. https://doi.org/10.1080/21568316.2013.804431
Steiger R, Abegg B (2018) Ski areas’ competitiveness in the light of climate change: comparative analysis in the eastern Alps. In: Müller D, Więckowski M (eds) tourism in transition, recovering from decline and managing change. Springer, pp 187–199
Steiger R, Stötter J (2013) Climate change impact assessment of ski tourism in Tyrol. Tourism Geogr 15:577–600. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2012.762539
Steiger R, Scott D, Abegg B, Pons M, Aall C (2019) A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism. Curr Issues Tour 22(11):1343-1379. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2017.1410110
The State Council of the People’s Republic of China (2016) Planning for Ice-Snow Sports Development 2016–2025. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-11/25/content_5137611.htm. Accessed 10 June 2018
Tranos E, Davoudi S (2014) The regional impact of climate change on winter tourism in Europe. Tour Plan Dev 11:163–178. https://doi.org/10.1080/21568316.2013.864992
Vanat L (2017) 2017 international report on snow and mountain tourism. Overview of the key industry figures for ski resorts
Wang SJ, Xu XW, Deng J, Zhou LY (2017) Chinese skiing -tourism destination: spatial patterns, existing problems and development countermeasures. J Glaciol Geocryol 39(4):902–909. https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0100 (In Chinese)
Wolfsegger C, Gössling S, Scott D (2008) Climate change risk appraisal in the Austrian ski industry. Tour Rev Int 12:13–23. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427208785899948
Wu B, Wei QH (2018) China ski industry white book (2017 annual report). http://www.vanat.ch/China%20Ski%20Industry%20White%20Book%202017.pdf. Accessed 5 June 2018
Wu Q, Kang S, Gao T, Zhang YJ (2010) The characteristics of the positive degree-day factors of the Zhadang glacier on the Nyainqentanglha range of Tibetan plateau, and its application. J Glaciol Geocryol 32(5):891–897 (In Chinese)
Xu LG (2017) Xinhua insight: China embraces new “principal contradiction” when embarking on new journey. Xinhua. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/20/c_136694592.htm. Accessed 8 June 2018
Yang JM, Wan CY (2010) Progresses in research on impacts of global climate change on winter ski tourism. Adv Clim Chang Res 6(5):356–361 (In Chinese)
Yin XR, Zhang GX, Yang F, Xu B (2011) Distributed hydrological modeling in semi-arid region in Northeast China: a case study in the Taoer River basin. J Jilin Univ (Earth Sci Ed) 41(1):137–144. https://doi.org/10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.2011.01.010 (In Chinese)
Zhang Y, Liu S, Ding Y (2006) Observed degree-day factors and their spatial variation on glaciers in western China. Ann Glaciol 43:301–306. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756406781811952
Zhang LN, Guo R, Zeng J, Lu B, Duan L, Liu L, Sun ZB (2013) Research on discrimination criterion of precipitation types in Beijing in winter. Plateau Meteorol 32:1780–1786. https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00147 (In Chinese)
Zhang XT, Li XM, Gao P, Li Q, Tang H (2017) Separation of precipitation forms based on different methods in Tianshan mountainous area, Northwest China. J Glaciol Geocryol 39(2):235–244. https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0027 (In Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Fang, Y., Scott, D. & Steiger, R. The impact of climate change on ski resorts in China. Int J Biometeorol 65, 677–689 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01822-x
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01822-x